Jair Bolsonaro

Brazilian President Michel Temer on May 22 withdrew from the country’s presidential race and endorsed his former finance minister, Henrique Meirelles. Recent polls show right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro in the lead with 18.3 percent support, and environmentalist Marina Silva and leftist Ciro Gomes battling for second place with 11.2 percent and 9 percent, respectively. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been the race’s front-runner, but he was jailed in April and has been all but formally barred from running. With four months until election day on Oct. 7, how is Brazil’s presidential race shaping up? Will Bolsonaro maintain his lead? Which factors will most affect the race between now and October?

Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue: "The truckers’ strike, the government’s inept response and the public reaction to both have increased the prospect that extreme right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro will be Brazil’s next president. Once again, Brazilians are showing how little they trust the country’s leadership. Despite its brutal economic damage and disruption, polls report that nine in 10 Brazilians think the strike is justified. The same percentage feel the official response was bungled. The now frighteningly commonplace calls for military intervention also points to the mounting scorn for politics and politicians. Brazil’s political center continues to shrink. The center’s prime representative in this October’s election, former São Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin, is the preferred candidate of only 5 to 8 percent of voters in recent polls, compared to nearly 20 percent for Bolsonaro. Alckmin’s badly divided party has been shamed by revelations of extensive corruption, just like most other parties. Another centrist candidate is Henrique Meirelles, who until last month served as Brazil’s very capable finance minister and is trying to run on his record. But the economic continuity is not an attractive electoral platform these days. Without currently jailed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who will almost certainly be declared ineligible to run, Bolsonaro leads in every poll, but Marina Silva and Ciro Gomes are within striking distance. Both are experienced in politics. They have each held high office and have sought the presidency before, although neither has won enough votes to participate in the runoff stage. Their political parties are small and weak, although Ciro is in position to gain Lula’s support, which could give him a potentially important boost. The major liability of both Marina and Ciro, however, is that Brazilian voters are unlikely to see either as having the capacity or will to challenge and upend Brazil’s political system. This is what Bolsonaro represents. This is his declared ambition—an ambition which Brazilians these days are demonstrating an escalating readiness to support."

João Feres Júnior, director of the Institute of Social and Political Studies (IESP) of the State University of Rio de Janeiro: "This election so far has been the most unpredictable in the last four decades. This is mostly due to the devaluation of politics and political institutions produced by their unrelenting association with corruption. Brazilian big media has played a major role in this process, lambasting the elected powers (legislative and executive) while glorifying the judicial branches of government (judiciary and prosecutor general). As a result, established parties and politicians are having trouble increasing their electoral base for the presidential race. In this scenario, candidates who present themselves as outsiders have an advantage. This is the case of Bolsonaro and Marina Silva. However, electoral politics is not only about image but also about party structure, and those outsiders are in very small parties with almost no machine, resources or TV time (in Brazil free campaign advertising is mandatory and allotted according to the number of members each party has in Congress). Bolsonaro has the added problem of being too far on the extreme right and thus incapable of attracting enough votes necessary to win the election. He might be able to make it to the second round if he is able and lucky enough to avoid grave mistakes during the campaign. But in the runoff, he will most likely lose to any contender. So, we are left with Alckmin, the candidate of the center-right (PSDB) and Ciro Gomes, who is placing himself quite well on the center-left, waiting for a massive transfer of voters from the Workers’ Party electorate, after Lula, a political prisoner, is definitively barred from running by Brazil’s corrupted judiciary."

Jana Nelson, former Brazil desk officer at the U.S. Department of State: "Not unlike other elections this year, Brazil’s presidential race is shaping up to be polarizing and about wedge issues. The front-runner, Jair Bolsonaro, has been campaigning informally for more than a year and has built a name for himself. Thirty percent of the population is still undecided, a number that should decrease over the next four months. Bolsonaro’s 18.3 percent support might grow enough to get him to the second round, but he is unlikely to win the election. Those who support his brash ways and controversial positions are a larger group than originally expected, but not yet half the population. A few months ago, the challenge in Brazil was a lack of candidates. Now, although none galvanize the population nor engender much passion on the part of the voter, at least there are a few options beyond Bolsonaro. Of all the candidates, according to the latest CNT/MDA poll, Marina Silva has the highest rejection rates, followed by Alckmin, meaning their electoral support is unlikely to grow. Both the leftist Ciro Gomes—a recurring figure in the last several elections—and Henrique Meirelles, a relative newcomer to electoral politics, could surface as viable opposition to Bolsonaro if they denounce corruption, promise to return to Lula-era social policies, and come off as intelligent, policy-minded and stable individuals."

Gilberto M. A. Rodrigues, professor of international relations at the Federal University of ABC in Brazil: "President Temer did not have any chance to be a competitive candidate, due to his very low support, and neither will his candidate, Henrique Meirelles. But it seems that the government needs to have someone running on its behalf in order to defend its projects and legacy. The successful, huge national transportation strike severely weakened the credibility of Temer’s government. The electoral race remains very unpredictable. Lula still retains considerable electoral capital, despite the fact that he is in prison and his political future is still unclear. Ciro Gomes is maneuvering to have Lula’s blessing, offering to elect a Workers’ Party candidate in Ceará State, where Gomes has had political control over the last years. This could guarantee a state governor for the Workers’ Party, which is at risk of losing political support without Lula in the race. Gomes is trying to build a left-wing coalition with other parties, having Fernando Haddad as a potential candidate for vice president and assembling a good team of collaborators. While the picture today shows that Bolsonaro may have oxygen to go to the second round, even he could lose backing if another centrist candidate captures people’s support, something that could still happen in such a volatile scenario."

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