Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has proposed building three new rail lines after she takes office in October. The Mexico City-Toluca intercity train is pictured.

President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum announced July 10 that she will build three train lines running from the capital to some cities along the US border. The project involves constructing some 1,850 miles of passenger rail, about double what current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador built. Sheinbaum announced that the trains would be electric, in contrast to the diesel-consuming freight trains that make up Mexico’s current fleets. Why is Sheinbaum proposing this infrastructure project? How does this align with her environmental policies? What will the new rail lines accomplish? To what extent would there be an impact on irregular migration toward the United States?

Lucinda Vargas, associate director of the Center for Border Economic Development at New Mexico State University: “One of the constitutional reforms that outgoing Mexican President López Obrador has proposed and is hoping to make reality before his departure in October is that the country’s 18,000 kilometers of railway lines that are currently used for cargo, be also utilized for passenger rail service. This project has been designated a national development priority. It’s no surprise, then, that President-elect Sheinbaum, in a demonstration of adherence to her mentor’s imprint, has publicly endorsed the project by announcing that three passenger rail routes will be developed during her administration, two of which will run from Mexico City to the northern border cities of Nuevo Laredo and Nogales. Of concern in this massive infrastructure undertaking slated to start on day one of Sheinbaum’s administration, is that a cost-benefit analysis has yet to be produced to justify the project, signaling it will likely take the form of the yet-to-be-completed Tren Maya. The project is poorly planned, hurriedly executed and has multi-billion-dollar cost overruns, but it also embodies the force of sheer presidential will. Also of concern are potential disruptions in the transport of Mexico’s top export—cars—which head north via the cargo rail lines, which are now targeted to also accommodate passenger service. The draw for passenger transport to Mexico’s northern border cities mostly comes from Central and South America migrants seeking entry to the United States, who currently hop on cargo trains to get a free-of-charge, albeit dangerous, ride to the border. Will the new rail passenger lines headed for the US-Mexico border turn into humanitarian transport of migrants, thus incentivizing their continuous flow and stressing already over-burdened border cities which are holding places for migrants seeking to cross, legally or illegally, into the United States?”

Wolfram F. Schaffler González, foreign trade administrator for the city of Laredo, Texas: “President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s proposal to expand Mexico’s passenger rail network is a cornerstone of her ‘100 Steps to Transformation’ plan, emphasizing sustainable and efficient infrastructure. A crucial aspect is separating passenger railways and cargo railways, recognizing their distinct technological needs. This historic strategic move aims to enhance efficiency and safety in both sectors. By separating operations, the plan aims to double freight transported by rail, leveraging multimodal connections and supporting broader economic activity which will further the competitiveness of the USMCA. Sheinbaum’s commitment to electric trains underscores her dedication to reducing emissions, aligning with her environmental policies and contrasting with President López Obrador’s preference for fossil fuels. The proposed rail lines will connect Mexico City with Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Monterrey, Guadalajara and Nuevo Laredo, among other cities, reducing travel times by over 40 percent. This infrastructure will facilitate economic growth, especially for international trade, by improving access to commercial, industrial and tourism activities. Additionally, the project aims to make transportation 15 percent more economical and reduce emissions by 80 percent, demonstrating significant environmental benefits. Regarding the impact of these projects on illegal migration, enhanced economic opportunities and improved regional connectivity may mitigate migration drivers by creating local job prospects. However, increased mobility could also influence migration patterns, necessitating coordinated border management on Mexico’s northern and southern borders, as well as comprehensive migration policies. Overall, Sheinbaum’s rail project represents a strategic investment in Mexico’s sustainable development, fostering economic growth, enhancing connectivity and supporting environmental goals. From a historical perspective, this ambitious plan, expected to be completed within five years, underscores her vision of a more connected and environmentally conscious Mexico.”

Amy Glover, president and founding partner of Agil(e): “President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has announced that her government will kick-start the construction of three new passenger trains: Mexico City-San Luis Potosí-Nuevo Laredo, Mexico City-Querétaro-Guadalajara and AIFA-Pachuca. This is in fact the continuation of a goal set by current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who will leave office on Oct. 1, to expand passenger rail infrastructure. Passenger transport was privatized under the administrations of Carlos Salinas and Ernesto Zedillo in the 1990s, and AMLO lays its decline in the lap of ‘neoliberalism.’ Last November, AMLO declared passenger rail service a ‘national development priority’ via presidential decree, requiring current concession holders to develop passenger services on their cargo lines or risk losing their concessions. A constitutional reform is being proposed to further consolidate this change. It will be challenging to effectively offer cargo and passenger rail services simultaneously. Railway freight transportation remains a critical tool for deepening North American trade integration. Forty-four percent of automobile exports and 46 percent of light and heavy trucks are shipped by rail. While manufacturing represents almost half of cargo volume, agricultural products (26.7 percent) and fuel (12.2 percent) are also moved by rail in Mexico, according to the Regulatory Agency for Rail Transport. The coordinator of Sheinbaum’s Business Council, Altagracia Gómez, has signaled a willingness to work in coordination with the private sector, leveraging capital markets to finance infrastructure projects. Tapping into private-public partnerships and other collaboration schemes will be crucial to secure the $22 billion that her team estimates is required to overhaul Mexico’s railway infrastructure.”

Nicolás Mariscal, member of the Advisor board and chairman of Grupo Marhnos in Mexico City: “The new government’s passenger rail projects signal the continuation of such infrastructure undertakings in the country. Nevertheless, there have been environmental issues that need to be addressed in the new projects, which will surely be the case as Sheinbaum has notable environmental credentials. One of the passenger rail lines will connect the new airport with the city of Pachuca; another will link the major cities of Querétaro and Guadalajara; and in what could be the most significant of them all, the interconnection of Mexico City, San Luis Potosí, Monterrey and Nuevo Laredo. This project deals with one of the main industrial corridors in the country, where numerous products make their way to the United States. In Mexico, there are few passenger rail lines. However, China, Europe and the United States have a vast rail infrastructure. So, it seems that the announcement points in the right direction, as they should help boost connectivity and the economy. Nevertheless, it will be essential to work with our best civil engineers and with private initiative, as they have capacities that the new government should take advantage of for the benefit of the country.”

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