Venezuela’s electoral authority declared that President Nicolás Maduro, in office since 2013, won re-election. However, exit polls showed a landslide for his opponent, and the election was marred by numerous irregularities.

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council has declared that President Nicolás Maduro won re-election on Sunday, winning 51 percent of the vote and defeating opposition candidate Edmundo González, despite exit polling that showed González won the election in a landslide. Numerous governments, including those of the United States, Chile, Guatemala and Argentina, have derided or questioned the officially announced results, and both Maduro and González have claimed victory. The vote was marred by numerous irregularities, including voter intimidation. What chance does the opposition have at reversing the announced result, and what can it do to challenge it? What pressure will other countries seek to exert against Maduro’s government, including through sanctions?

Michael Shifter, senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue: “The most likely scenario for Venezuela’s crucial presidential elections is playing out as expected. According to all reliable accounts, the opposition led by Edmundo González defeated Nicolás Maduro by a substantial margin. Yet, not surprisingly, Maduro, through the government-controlled National Electoral Council, claimed victory after a long delay on Sunday. The official results were presented without any evidence and defy credibility. For the opposition, the chief task now is to remain united and amass ballot records to convincingly demonstrate that the election was indeed fraudulent. This is essential to support key governments like the United States, Brazil and Chile, which have responded firmly yet prudently to the election results, raising serious questions about the transparency of the vote. The efforts of these and other regional governments will be further strengthened by the mobilization and peaceful street protests by the opposition and the wider population, reflecting the anger of most Venezuelans. There is, however, a real risk of a severe crackdown by the regime that demands vigilance by the international community. The evidence of such blatant and massive fraud is likely to be sufficiently overwhelming to trigger a political crisis, with growing fractures in the governing coalition, leading to complex and difficult negotiations toward a gradual democratic transition. Although Venezuela is now living through a very uncertain and tense moment, the impressive courage and civic spirit of the vast majority of its citizens clamoring for fundamental change after a quarter century of Chavismo is likely to mark the beginning of the end of authoritarian, sclerotic rule.”

Julia Buxton, British Academy Global Professor at the University of Manchester: Reversing the result requires two things: comprehensive evidence of fraud, and for Maduro to accept that fraud invalidates the result. This requires the CNE to publish all relevant data and minutes, for this information to be robustly and transparently assessed by plural bodies, and for such a compelling case to be made that Maduro will concede or his allies will peel away. In this context, actors such as the military, state governors, supreme court judges and senior PSUV figures are critical. They have a massive cost/benefit analysis to make. Their current calculation is that the result is credible enough to remain behind Maduro. A hemorrhage may begin if irrefutable information is produced and if critical friends such as Brazil and Colombia are forced to move comprehensively against Maduro. Some countries like Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and Guatemala have already rejected the result. Noise from these states carries little weight in places where leverage needs to be exercised, and it only contributes to regional tensions and domestic stresses in Venezuela. The United States has zero cards to play. There will be threats to ratchet up sanctions, but such a move will be self-defeating, fueling outmigration and pressures at the U.S. border. Perhaps the United States will once again take the route of recognizing a parallel presidency, a strategy that reaped negligible political dividends with Juan Guaidó while creating a mess of sovereign and PDVSA debt repayments. The route of protest will be tempting but has not worked in the past.”

R. Evan Ellis, Latin America research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute: “Maduro’s robbery of the election was predictable, predicted and consistent with the behavior of Chavismo elites during the last 25 years to hijack democratic institutions, then hold on to power at all costs. As in past years, Maduro calculates that the long participation of regime cronies and security forces in corruption and penetration by Cuban agents will prevent them from splintering and threatening his power, as they face down likely massive protests with official repression, selective arrests and terror through SEBIN, the FAES, collectivos, gangs and other agents. Maduro has absolutely no incentive to permit a recount or meaningful scrutiny of the vote count that would more clearly expose his fraud. He might, however, make further ambiguous promises, including to the Biden administration, to undercut protest mobilization and delay sanctions. Short of external military intervention, or support for Venezuelans to retake their country (which would only generate bloodshed), this, tragically, is ‘game over.’ What the United States and like-minded democratic partners can and must do now is give every possible protection to María Corina Machado, Edmundo González and their courageous counterparts, use maximum sanctions and other measures to isolate the Maduro regime to minimize the contagion effects in the region from its criminal and subversive actions and call out the shameful support to Maduro’s ‘re-election’ farce by China, Russia, Cuba, Bolivia, Honduras and others—and finally learn the futility of negotiating with dictators.”

Eileen Gavin, principal analyst for sustainable finance and the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft: “The CNE’s announcement—which declared an ‘irreversible’ victory based on a count of 80 percent, despite a relatively small seven-point differential between Maduro and González, as well as an alleged IT attack—raised many questions. The opposition Democratic Unitary Platform (PUD) immediately called fraud, declaring that based on the 40 percent of the tabulated ballots it had managed to secure, González was wining with some 70 percent of the vote (although it has not released details of these calculations). It is now demanding access to the remainder of these paper receipts, so as to cross-check against the corresponding electronic records sent to the CNE from 30,000 polling stations. The United States, regional governments and E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell have all echoed this, demanding full transparency across all voting and election documents—meaning unobstructed access both to the paper trail and the central electronic records. Brazil’s foreign ministry, among the last to comment, struck a scrupulously careful tone, noting that it would await publication of the full disaggregated results. President Lula’s foreign affairs advisor, Celso Amorim, who ‘accompanied’ the process and remains in Caracas, likewise noted the need for complete results to be made public, ‘table by table ... act by act.’ The CNE website remains down, suggestive of continuing activity behind the scenes. For the PUD, keeping up this initial pressure is critical, but we do not expect the result to flip.”

The Latin America Advisor features Q&A from leaders in politics, economics, and finance every business day. It is available to members of the Dialogue’s Corporate Program and others by subscription.