US Presidential Elections – What Comes After November 5 for Latin America and the Caribbean?

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The US presidential elections evoke a wide range of reactions and emotions in Latin America and the Caribbean, highlighting the variability of US economic and political influence across different nations. Such influence is closely tied to factors such as economic dependence, geographic proximity, and migratory flows. In 2023, for example, Mexico's exports and imports to the US accounted for 80 percent and 42 percent respectively, whereas Brazil saw only 11 percent and 16 percent. As a result, while the US elections may more directly alter trade relations and investment flows in Mexico and Central America, their impact is significantly less pronounced in South American economies that have more diffuse commercial ties with the US.

The candidates in contention, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, present at the beginning of their respective campaigns divergent positions on key issues including migration, trade protectionism, and energy and climate policy. Moreover, the outcome of these elections will influence the formation of alliances and ideological affinities within the region, affecting interactions between leaders beyond the confines of formal diplomacy. This phenomenon is not new; figures like Javier Milei in Argentina have openly expressed their affinity for Trump, echoing the stance of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro during the previous administration. This dynamic could have meaningful repercussions on the international agenda, particularly in regional and global forums, such as the upcoming COP, which Brazil will chair.

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