Rising Brazil: Domestic & International Trends
In his most recent book, Starting Over: Brazil Since 1985, Albert Fishlow addresses Brazil’s transformation over the past 25 years, focusing on trade, economics, and the country’s unique global role. At an event hosted by the Inter-American Dialogue on September 22, Fishlow presented the critical aspects of Brazilian development that he describes in his latest work, with questions and commentary provided by Paulo Sotero, director of the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Brazil Institute, and Peter Hakim, president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue.
Hakim posed two overarching questions to frame the debate on Brazil’s rise on the world stage: How long is Brazil’s time in the spotlight going to last? and What does Brazil want to achieve with its increased power?
Brazil’s history is complex, but its successes stem from three key characteristics: democracy, economic stability, and the ability to address inequality, Sotero noted.
According to the speakers, the pivotal moment for Brazil was not Cardoso’s election in 1994, but rather the end of the military dictatorship in 1985. Brazil’s evolution as a country is characterized by the varying priorities of presidential administrations throughout this time, from the country’s focus on building democratic political institutions after the return to civilian rule, to the prioritization of economic growth during Cardoso’s presidency, to increased social policy reform during the Lula administration. Despite giving precedence to different concerns, continuity between these regimes proved critical to the success of development initiatives. Fishlow stressed that “one doesn’t understand the success that Brazil has had to an economic degree without understanding that aspect of continuity between Cardoso and Lula.”
Lula’s strong connection with other BRIC countries and rejection of a free-trade area with the Americas was influenced heavily by Cardoso’s similar outlook, and is a part of Brazil’s attempt to establish itself as a global force. Brazil’s strength comes not only from having a useful relationship with the global south, but also from being a bridge to the north. Sotero pointed out that Brazil is increasingly assuming a leadership role in global affairs, as seen most notably in its relationship with Iran. Sotero proposed that Brazil should attempt where others have failed to negotiate for peace between Israel and Palestine, arguing “since there is no world leadership on that issue now, Brazil has as much right to be there as anybody else.”
The speakers held that Brazil’s diplomatic prominence has also been boosted by a propitious economic climate. Fishlow argued that “one of the things that is surprising and most fortunate is that trade has continued to grow at higher rates than people have expected under current conditions.” However, the country still faces many obstacles. The effects of low levels of investment in its own economy (18 percent of GDP) are more evident in aspects of domestic development. Although Brazil’s economy continues to grow, the country is in need of reform to its education, health, and social security sectors. A major challenge is to address the country’s shortcomings before the population peaks at 300 million.
The future of Brazil depends as much on its domestic investment and growth as it does on its developing role as a global power.