The 545 delegates of Venezuela’s powerful “constituent assembly,” which will have the ability not only to rewrite the country’s Constitution, but also to overrule other government institutions, began receiving their credentials in early August. The opposition and several foreign governments widely denounced Sunday’s vote to elect the body, which President Nicolás Maduro says is needed to solve the country’s political and economic crises, but opponents see as an effort by Maduro to increase his power. Has Venezuela become a dictatorship that is sliding into civil war, as some analysts have asserted? What will result from U.S. sanctions against Maduro? What should be the response from international actors such as the OAS and the United Nations? What will the constituent assembly use its power to do? What can be done to stabilize the country and its economy?

Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue: "The constituent assembly election is often cited as the decisive moment, the crossing of the Rubicon, in Venezuela’s march toward a repressive, authoritarian regime. This is an exaggeration. More accurately, the election was one more regrettable step toward the dismantling of democracy—a process started with the inauguration of Hugo Chávez in 1999, accelerated after the aborted coup against him in 2002, and proceeding steadily ever since. During this period, Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro either took over or undermined the nation’s institutions, one after another, including its courts, electoral machinery, parliament, armed forces, state oil company (PDVSA), political parties and provincial and local governments. Nearly all independent media came under Chavista control. So did many private enterprises, labor unions and universities. Sunday’s election underscored once again that the Maduro government is determined to hold on to power indefinitely, and certainly unwilling to yield it through democratic procedures. The re-arrest of two of the opposition’s most important leaders was further warning that the Maduro is not about to compromise with the opposition and is not intimidated either by the U.S. sanctions or by the condemnation of other Latin American countries. But it may also mean that the government is uneasy about the low turnout for the assembly election and the prospect of renewed, and potentially larger and more aggressive, protests. Democracy in Venezuela has long been in a desperate condition, and it continues to deteriorate. Too bad the United States and Latin American nations paid so little attention and responded so tepidly to the steady decay of Venezuela’s democratic institutions and rule of law over so many years. There is not much they can do now to reverse course. In the weeks and months ahead, ordinary Venezuelans are likely to face an even deeper hardship, greater uncertainty and increasing violence."

Otto Reich, president of Otto Reich Associates LLC and former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere Affairs: "The current Venezuela crisis shows the limits of diplomacy. Years of unsuccessful attempts at a negotiated solution by E.U., U.S. and Latin American diplomats simply resulted in buying time for Chávez, Maduro and their Cuban handlers to intensify their hold on power. Dialogue works only with sincere, responsive and responsible governments, not undemocratic ones that are run by de facto organized crime cabals whose principal purpose is to enrich themselves and stay in power so that they do not pay a price for their crimes. Two such governments in our hemisphere are Venezuela’s and Cuba’s, and therein lies the real cause of the Venezuelan crisis. Undemocratic governments engage in insincere dialogue while pressing their ulterior agendas. One would have thought the Western world had learned the high human cost of such diplomatic wishful thinking after the 1938 Chamberlain-Hitler ‘peace accord’ in Munich led to World War II. But, unfortunately, we continue to place our hopes on self-appointed ‘peace-makers’ such as Spain’s José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. He and his predecessors asked the United States to refrain from pressuring Chávez, and later Maduro, to ‘give peace a chance.’ The predictable result is now again evident on the streets of Venezuela: unarmed citizens murdered; scarcities of food, medicine, water and electricity; but an abundance of corruption, drug trafficking and violence, all perpetrated by the government itself. For 18 years, a small group of us warned of the building of a Cuba-style dictatorship in Venezuela. We were called ‘cold warriors,’ ‘paranoid,’ even ‘liars’ by the left. Now we see who was right. It is not too late to save the Venezuelan people from an even worse fate than the present: stop listening to the appeasers."

Julia Buxton, professor of comparative politics at the School of Public Policy of Central European University in Budapest: "If shootings and bombings are not to become routine in Venezuela in the months—if not years ahead—the ‘international community’ must urgently improve strategy and coordination around the crisis. No productive role can be seen for the OAS, which has discredited itself due to the crass mishandling by Secretary General Luis Almagro and diplomatic miscalculations of regional heavyweights such as Brazil, Peru and Mexico that lacked the legitimacy to bring other states to a consensual position. Almagro’s invective and terse OAS statements, like Mercosur’s sanctions, have not arrested the accelerating political crisis or the bloodshed. Similarly, U.S. sanctions targeting individuals have had negligible impact—neither changing the calculations of the Maduro government nor arresting the violence. Terms such as ‘dictatorship’ are not helpful in enabling external actors to adopt a necessary course of engagement not isolation of Venezuela. Peace and stability—now or long term—cannot come from condoning strategies of regime change predicated on baiting the security sector and paralyzing civic and economic life. Confidence building, dialogue and negotiation efforts must be led by credible and experienced actors and approaches that have enabled other countries to overcome infinitely worse conflict, destruction and brutality than experienced in Venezuela. Despite its own failures, it looks like U.N. agencies must step up to this task. For the sake of the Venezuelan people, the PSUV and MUD cannot continue to be indulged in the idea they can ‘win’ in this conflict. In this context, the elections for and the convening of the constituent assembly is not a mechanism but a symbol—a symbol of the miscalculations of a host of actors and interests both sympathetic and antagonistic to Maduro."

Riordan Roett, director of the Latin American Studies program at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies: "The arrests of Leopoldo López and Antonio Ledezma were a brazen demonstration by President Nicolás Maduro that international sanctions and criticism carry no weight. The judicial system is no longer independent; the democratically elected National Assembly will probably be replaced by the constituent assembly, which will have extraordinary authority to dominate the political system; the media has been cowed; and street protests have been met with increasingly brutal repression. The only challenge to Maduro must now come from within the Chavista movement that, for the moment, appears to have decided that Maduro is a useful symbol of the ‘new’ Venezuela. Mercosur may now expel Venezuela, but it will have little meaning, since the country has nothing to trade except petroleum. The United States may impose further sanctions, but Washington must be mindful of the fragility of the Venezuelan economy. Any measures that limit petroleum exports and sales will reduce the flow of foreign exchange that sustains the regime and could be used by the government to default on its international debt obligations, which would have negative consequences for emerging-market economies. Less foreign exchange will reduce imports and inflict further pain on the Venezuelan people, who already lack food and medicine. The options are limited. The first, in the short term, is the consolidation of the brutish regime. The second is continued violent opposition in the streets that will be repressed violently. The only institutional veto player that remains is the military. To date, it has apparently decided to remain loyal to its patron Maduro and his thuggish colleagues. If the country descends into civil war as in Syria, there will be consequences for Venezuela’s neighbors and a different strategy will be required. But Syria reminds us of the consequences of ill thought out military options. Diplomacy remains the best option in the medium and long term but even that option, at the moment, appears hopeless."

Ben Raderstorf, program associate in the Peter D. Bell Rule of Law program at the Inter-American Dialogue: "It would be hard to miss the ominous signs in the tea leaves of the constituyente. For years, Venezuela has teetered on the brink of dictatorship, but was held back by lip service to Hugo Chávez’s much-flaunted 1999 Constitution. Now the government has given itself the arbitrary power to sweep it away without replacement—eliminating any semblance of democracy or rule of law in Venezuela. The billion-bolívar question is: ‘will they be so bold? Or is this just a bargaining chip going into potential negotiations?’ At the moment, the worst case seems likely. The overnight re-arrest of opposition leaders Leopoldo López and Antonio Ledezma implies an impending crackdown, and it is likely that in the coming weeks the legislature will be dissolved and the dissident-chavista attorney general will be fired. If that happens, Venezuela is at risk of a dangerous downward spiral. Both Maduro and the opposition will face pressure to radicalize. Having committed full-tilt to repression, the government may become increasingly erratic and tyrannical in a desperate bid to avoid collapse (which could bring potential prosecution for human rights abuses, drug trafficking, corruption and other crimes). Conversely, some in the opposition may feel pushed to abandon peaceful demonstrations in favor of more aggressive confrontation. Meanwhile, the United States is left with few good policy options. Unilateral sanctions against Venezuelan oil would only deepen the chaos and suffering, which leaves only the uninspiring strategy of targeted sanctions and building a multilateral coalition to pressure Maduro—and waiting for the breaking point."

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