I do not believe the conditions for a popular uprising, or a military coup, exist at present [in Venezuela]. US governments for decades made a similar calculation with Cuba by enforcing a harsh embargo to isolate the late President Fidel Castro and his brother and successor, Raúl Castro. In half a century, it never succeeded in removing the Castros from power. Crucially, Maduro has maintained the loyalty of the Venezuelan military, the country’s major arbiter of power, despite US efforts to encourage a coup and otherwise sow divisions in the high command.