John Polga-Hecimovich, associate professor of political science at the U.S. Naval Academy: “Noboa faces tough political headwinds, including historic drought, wildfires, ongoing power outages due to diminished hydroelectric capacity and continued security threats. While homicides are down from January 2024, when Noboa declared a war on organized crime, assassinations of prison officials, prisoners and prosecutors continue, and gang violence has recently surged in Quito. Still, even if it is unlikely for him to win outright, Noboa remains well positioned to make the runoff election in April. According to most polls, his approval ratings are running at slightly less than 50 percent, which is higher than that of his competitors. Luisa González, the candidate backed by ex-President Rafael Correa, is his most significant challenger. However, Noboa polls well…”
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