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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

December 16, 2181

Will Argentina’s Milei Achieve His Economic Targets?

Argentine President Javier Milei earlier this month presented his budget for the coming year to lawmakers. // Photo: Argentine Government.

Q

  • Argentine President Javier Milei on Sept. 15 presented his 2025 budget to Congress, and he vowed to eliminate the country’s budget deficit. Milei said he aims for a surplus that is equivalent to 1.3 percent of Argentina’s gross domestic product, and he forecasts inflation of just 18.3 percent—a drastic decrease from this year’s triple-digit rate. How likely is Milei to achieve these targets? What does Milei’s budget proposal say about his priorities, and how much legislative support does he have for his economic agenda? How well are Argentines tolerating the government’s austerity measures, and how much backing does Milei still have among the public?  

A

Kezia McKeague, regional director at McLarty Associates: “Like all governments, the Milei administration based its 2025 budget on overly sanguine projections for the macroeconomy. While the inflation rate is unlikely to fall as low as 18.3 percent, it will certainly be a better year for the Argentine economy, with the OECD expecting growth to rebound to 3.9 percent (short of the government’s target of 5 percent) thanks to private consumption. A new investment promotion regime will help to attract large-scale investments, particular in copper mining and the energy sector, but many investors will remain in ‘wait and see’ mode given the government’s gradual approach to lifting capital controls. The core tenet of the budget is Milei’s ironclad commitment to fiscal balance, which he emphasized in his recent speech to investors at the New York Stock Exchange. The budget contains…”

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