Latin America Advisor 2024-08-20 – Inter-American Dialogue

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

August 20, 2024

Why Does Bolivia’s Arce Want a Vote on Term Limits?

Bolivian President Luis Arce said earlier this month that he wants to ask voters whether the country should have term limits for presidents. // File Photo: Bolivian Government.

Q

Bolivian President Luis Arce announced on Aug.6 that a national referendum will be held to settle the matter of constitutional term limits for presidents, a subject of several contradictory court rulings in recent years. Although the constitution prohibits more than two consecutive presidential terms, a constitutional court ruling in 2013 allowed then-President Evo Morales to serve three terms, and Morales has declared his intent to run for the presidency again, splitting the MAS party between Morales and Arce and paralyzing Bolivia’s legislature. What is the most likely outcome of a national referendum on term limits? How might the result of such a referendum affect Morales’ presidential aims and power within the MAS? Can Arce use a public vote to strengthen his presidency and get his policy goals back on track?

A

Miguel Centellas, instructional associate professor of sociology and undergraduate coordinator at the University of Mississippi: “Arce’s announcement raises several questions that remain to be answered. First, it’s unclear whether what a referendum on presidential term limits would entail. Would it simply ratify the constitution’s limit of two consecutive presidential terms? Would it limit non-consecutive re-election? Would it return to the pre-2009 bar on any consecutive re-election? But it’s also unclear if any referendum is possible. By law, presidents can’t announce referendums. They must be popular initiatives signed by 5 percent of registered voters or approved by 35 percent of legislators. The issue is further complicated because Arce also announced two other referendums: one to alter…”

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Merike Blofield
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Nicolas Mariscal
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Thomas F. McLarty III
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Beatrice Rangel
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Ernesto Revilla
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Gustavo Roosen
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Andrés Rozental
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