Latin America Advisor 2024-01-31 – Inter-American Dialogue

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

January 31, 2024

Will Venezuela Have a Legitimate Election This Year?

María Corina Machado is the Venezuelan opposition’s presidential candidate, but the country’s supreme court last Friday upheld a 15-year ban on her holding office. // File Photo: @MariaCorinaYA via X.

Q

Venezuela’s Supreme Court ruled last Friday that opposition candidate María Corina Machado cannot run for president in this year’s planned election. The court’s move upheld the government’s 15-year ban on Machado running for office on allegations of financial irregularities, which Machado denies. What does the court’s ruling mean for the prospect of a credible presidential election this year in Venezuela? Will the opposition rally behind another candidate, and who could that be? How likely is the United States to reimpose sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry that it temporarily lifted last October?

A

Patrick Duddy, senior advisor for global affairs at Duke University, former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela: “The Venezuelan supreme court’s decision to affirm the ban on María Corina Machado’s candidacy for president was entirely predictable. Ever since Machado emerged as the winner of the opposition’s Oct. 22 presidential primary with over 90 percent support, the regime has backed away from the agreement it signed in Barbados on Oct. 17 to proceed to elections this year. If the court’s decision is not reversed, a presidential election that meets even the most minimal international standards is not possible. In the meantime, the opposition is not likely to rally behind an alternative candidate for at least two reasons. First, unifying the opposition in Venezuela has always been difficult. Machado’s success in building a broad coalition is precisely why the regime has reaffirmed the ban on her candidacy. Second, the opposition is…”

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.

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Gene Kuleta
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P. 202.463.2920
E. gkuleta@thedialogue.org

Carl David
Goette-Luciak
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Diego Arria
Director,
Columbus Group

Merike Blofield
Professor of Political Science,
University of Hamburg

Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO,
DevryBV Sustainable Strategies

Joyce Chang
Global Head of Research,
J.P. Morgan

Marlene Fernández
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Peter Hakim
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Jon E. Huenemann
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James R. Jones
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Craig Kelly
Senior Director,
Int’l Gov’t Relations,
Exxon Mobil

Barbara Kotschwar
Professor of Political Economy,
Georgetown University

John Maisto
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US Education Finance Group

Nicolas Mariscal
Chairman,
Grupo Marhnos

Thomas F. McLarty III
Chairman,
McLarty Associates

Beatrice Rangel
Director,
AMLA Consulting

Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

Gustavo Roosen
President,
IESA

Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &
Asociados

Shelly Shetty
Managing Director,
Sovereigns, Fitch

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