Latin America Advisor 2024-01-24 – Inter-American Dialogue

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

January 24, 2024

Will the DR’s Abinader Sail to Another Term?

The Dominican Republic’s president, Luis Abinader, is seeking re-election in May and has a commanding lead in polls. // File Photo: @luisabinader via X.

Q

With less than four months to go before the Dominican Republic’s May 19 presidential and legislative elections, incumbent President Luis Abinader has a double-digit lead ahead of his nearest rival. In a mid-December poll by the Cibao Economic Center, Abinader had the support of 58 percent of respondents, while former President Leonel Fernández had 23 percent and Abel Martínez, the mayor of Santiago de los Caballeros, had 10 percent. What are the main reasons behind Abinader’s popularity, and how likely is he to be re-elected? What issues are most important to voters in the Caribbean nation? What events between now and the May 19 election could affect the race?

A

Rosario Espinal, professor emeritus of sociology at Temple University: “President Luis Abinader is well-positioned for re-election due to factors that are similar to the ones that led to the re-elections of Leonel Fernández and Danilo Medina. The ruling party is unified, the opposition is divided, and Dominicans tend to re-elect their presidents unless there is a major economic downturn. There is also macroeconomic stability. Inflation has been higher than usual, but it is moderate, and the middle class, which is crucial to Abinader’s re-election, understands the causes. Abinader also has good approval ratings, and the government is spending heavily on the media. In addition, Abinader will run again on an anticorruption platform, a theme central to his 2020 victory. To expand his electoral appeal, Abinader is also running on the Haitian threat. He presents himself as…”

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.

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Gene Kuleta
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E. gkuleta@thedialogue.org

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Goette-Luciak
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Diego Arria
Director,
Columbus Group

Merike Blofield
Professor of Political Science,
University of Hamburg

Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO,
DevryBV Sustainable Strategies

Joyce Chang
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J.P. Morgan

Marlene Fernández
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James R. Jones
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Craig Kelly
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Int’l Gov’t Relations,
Exxon Mobil

Barbara Kotschwar
Professor of Political Economy,
Georgetown University

John Maisto
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US Education Finance Group

Nicolas Mariscal
Chairman,
Grupo Marhnos

Thomas F. McLarty III
Chairman,
McLarty Associates

Beatrice Rangel
Director,
AMLA Consulting

Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

Gustavo Roosen
President,
IESA

Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &
Asociados

Shelly Shetty
Managing Director,
Sovereigns, Fitch

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