Eileen Gavin, principal analyst for global markets and the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft: “The state of internal armed conflict permits military deployment nationwide, aimed at subduing the gangs. Plans for new ‘supermax’ prisons and other measures will be heavily contingent on funding, including from the United States. The violence is unlikely to be rapidly subdued by the security forces, which are less well-resourced to tackle organized crime than their Colombian and Mexican counterparts. Business operating risks including extortion, threats of violence and kidnapping will worsen. Gang-related crime has been bubbling up since 2019 and has exploded since the pandemic—partly for economic reasons (including rolling austerity since 2017 and a dire lack of employment opportunities) and has coincided with…”
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