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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

December 12, 2714

Will Venezuela’s Maduro Order an Invasion of Guyana?

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is asserting that the Essequibo region, which makes up two-thirds of Guyana and is adjacent to an oil-rich area, belongs to his country. // File Photo: @NicolasMaduro via X.

Q

  • Venezuelan voters approved a government-supported referendum on Dec. 3 to back the country’s claim over Guyana’s Essequibo region, following ExxonMobil’s discovery of large quantities of oil in the area in 2015. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Venezuela’s government not to take action that would affect Guyana’s control over the territory, but Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has ordered state-owned companies to start exploration and exploitation of oil and gas deposits in the disputed area. What are Maduro’s main motivations for asserting control of the Essequibo? How should Guyana—and other international actors, including the United States—respond to the referendum and Venezuela’s moves to exploit resources there? Is Venezuela likely to invade Guyana, and how might the international community intervene if it does?

A

Riyad Insanally, fellow at the Caribbean Policy Consortium and former ambassador of Guyana to the United States and the Organization of American States: “Maduro’s bogus referendum, in defiance of the ICJ, has placed him beyond the pale of international law. By ordering the creation of a new state called ’Guayana Esequiba’ governed by a general and charging PDVSA with managing oil, gas and mining activities there, he has annexed sovereign Guyanese territory by decree. How he can enforce this without an invasion remains to be seen. Maduro may be trying to stir up nationalist sentiment to distract Venezuelans from their economic woes and to push back against U.S. pressure for free elections in 2024. He even peddles the ludicrous fiction that…”

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.
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