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LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

November 3, 2023

Does Venezuela’s Opposition Stand a Chance Next Year?

María Corina Machado overwhelmingly won the Venezuelan opposition’s Oct. 22 primary. But the government has barred her from holding office, and the Supreme Court suspended the primary results. // File Photo: @MariaCorinaYA via X.

Q

  • Venezuelans on Oct. 22 nominated María Corina Machado as the opposition’s candidate to challenge President Nicolás Maduro in a presidential election planned for next year. Machado won more than 90 percent of the vote, but Maduro’s government in June banned her from holding public office until 2030, and the country’s Supreme Court on Monday suspended the results of the opposition primary. What is driving support for Machado? Will Maduro’s government, which agreed earlier this month to allow a competitive presidential election next year, allow Machado to run? How big of a chance does Machado have of unseating Maduro next year, and what would she and the opposition need to do in order to achieve that?  

A

Javier Corrales, Dwight W. Morrow 1895 Professor of Political Science at Amherst College: “The irony is too obvious. Here is a government that has conducted the most irregular and non-credible elections for state office in Latin America since the 1980s now accusing the opposition, without proof, of electoral irregularities. Attributing one’s unacceptable behavior to another is the perfect example of projection. Maduro is reminding us that he is not interested in competitive elections. But this is not new information. We have known this since 2016, when he used similar arguments to suspend the opposition-controlled National Assembly and to ban candidates and change the leadership of most parties in the country. Even the communist party has now been ‘intervened’ by Maduro. So it’s not just Machado who is banned. The key question is…”

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.
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Joyce Chang
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Barbara Kotschwar
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Nicolas Mariscal
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Thomas F. McLarty III
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Ernesto Revilla
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Gustavo Roosen
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