LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

October 4, 2022

What Factors Will Decide Who Wins Brazil’s Election?

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, pictured Sunday at a polling station, was the top vote-getter in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election. He faces current President Jair Bolsonaro in an Oct. 30 runoff. // Photo: Facebook Page of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Q

A

Gilberto M.A. Rodrigues, associate professor and coordinator of the postgraduate program in international relations at the Federal University of ABC in Brazil: “The result of Brazil’s presidential election was extraordinary for former President Lula, who beat Bolsonaro by a margin of more than six million votes. This, considering that the current president mobilized enormous government resources, with the support of Congress, to change the constitution and approve temporary measures prohibited in an election period to benefit the population in favor of his candidacy. The polls are not wrong about Lula’s voting capacity, since his 48.43 percent is within the margin of error of the methodology. However, candidates Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes had fewer votes than expected, which reveals an early migration of part of their voters to Bolsonaro already in the first round, something that the polls failed to capture. In addition, there was a strong ultra-right wave in the election of senators and deputies, which benefited…”

Top News

U.S. Secretary of State Begins Visit to South America
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Monday met in Bogotá with Colombian President Gustavo Petro. During his visit to South America, Blinken is also planning to meet with the presidents of Chile and Peru.
Mexico’s CFE Ordered to Pay ATCO $85 Million
An arbitration court in London last year ordered Mexican state-run power utility CFE to pay $85 million to Canada-based ATCO, Reuters reported Monday.
Mexico Announces Anti-Inflation Deal With Food Producers
Mexican Finance Minister Rogelio Ramírez de la O on Monday announced an agreement with food producers that is designed to curb soaring prices.

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.

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Thomas F. McLarty III
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Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

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