Peter Hakim, member of the Advisor board and president emeritus of the Inter-American Dialogue: “Lula will win the election, hands down, perhaps in the first round or surely in the second. Reliable polls show Lula with a commanding lead of 12 to 16 points. The question is whether, regardless of the outcome, Bolsonaro, like his idol Donald Trump, will insist the election was stolen and resist stepping down. What happens next is all speculation. Will there be massive, possibly violent demonstrations from rabid Bolsonaro allies, whom police are unwilling or unable to control—and may even support? Will Brazil’s military protect democracy, stand aside or support the false claims? The narrower the Lula victory, the more likely that Bolsonaro will contest the results. Still, there will be forces pushing against Bolsonaro. Many Brazilian institutions have shown their resilience. Governors, mayors, the courts, the news media, business leaders and civil society groups, for example, effectively resisted…”