LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR

A daily publication Of the dialogue

May 31, 2022

Will Mexico’s Economy See a Solid Rebound?

Even though Mexico’s economy grew in the first quarter, GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels. Mexico City is pictured. // File Photo: Government of Mexico City.

Q

A

Carlos Morales, director for Latin America sovereigns at FitchRatings: “Mexico’s latest economic indicators continue to point toward a gradual recovery but well below regional and rating peers. We expect real GDP growth will slow down to 2 percent in 2022 and remain at that level next year. The real GDP level will not reach pre-pandemic levels until 2023, lagging other emerging economies. The limited fiscal impulse, coupled with an early reversal of the monetary policy easing, restrained the economic recovery as authorities prioritized macroeconomic stability. Risks are tilted to the downside given ongoing external disruptions to energy prices and supply chains (such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s lockdown measures). External demand from the United States will remain supportive, but on a lesser scale than in 2021. Worse-than-expected U.S. economic growth remains a key risk for Mexico’s recovery. Private investment continues to underperform as a pattern of political interventions generates unease among investors…”

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The Inter-American Dialogue publishes the Latin America Advisor every business day for a distinguished membership of informed corporate leaders, scholars, and government officials invested in Latin America’s development and future. The Advisor‘s highly regarded Q&A section covers questions submitted by subscribers themselves. Commentators regularly include heads of state, business leaders, diplomats, economists, analysts, and thought leaders from around the world. Many of the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies subscribe to the Advisor. To subscribe, click here. For terms and conditions, click here. For more information, contact Gene Kuleta, editor of the Advisor, at gkuleta@thedialogue.org.

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Gene Kuleta
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E. gkuleta@thedialogue.org

Carl David
Goette-Luciak
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Director,
Columbus Group

Merike Blofield
Professor of Political Science,
University of Hamburg

Devry Boughner Vorwerk
CEO,
DevryBV Sustainable Strategies

Joyce Chang
Global Head of Research,
J.P. Morgan

Marlene Fernández
Corporate Vice President for Gov’t Relations,
Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s)

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President Emeritus,
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Adtalem Global Education

Jon E. Huenemann
Council Member,
GLG Inc.

James R. Jones
Chairman,
Monarch Global Strategies

Craig Kelly
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Int’l Gov’t Relations,
Exxon Mobil

Barbara Kotschwar
Professor of Political Economy,
Georgetown University

John Maisto
Director,
US Education Finance Group

Nicolas Mariscal
Chairman,
Grupo Marhnos

Thomas F. McLarty III
Chairman,
McLarty Associates

Beatrice Rangel
Director,
AMLA Consulting

Ernesto Revilla
Head of Latin American Economics, Citi

Gustavo Roosen
President,
IESA

Andrés Rozental
President, Rozental &
Asociados

Shelly Shetty
Managing Director,
Sovereigns, Fitch

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