Gabriel Torres, sovereign analyst at Moody’s Investors Service: “Inflation in Argentina has been rising in recent months from already high levels. After ending at close to 51 percent in 2021, the 12-month trailing inflation rate as of April 2022 is now almost 60 percent. The annualized inflation of just the last three months exceeds 90 percent. With this inflation acceleration, the government has no option but to attempt to reduce the impact on wages and limit the loss of purchasing power, even if it adds to the ongoing wage-price spiral. Reducing the inflation is at best a multiyear process and requires coordination across all macroeconomic policies, not just monetary but also fiscal, as well as potential wage agreements, to limit wage price pressures. The recently signed agreement with the IMF provides Argentina with an opportunity to implement a medium-term program and requires, among other things, gradual declines in the government’s primary deficit as well as funding from the central bank. If Argentina manages to do that, it should help to…”
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Gene Kuleta
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