Pamela Starr and Juan Casillas, senior advisors at Monarch Global Strategies: “Sunday’s referendum was far from the significant victory AMLO and his party, Morena, desired. Although the pro-AMLO vote was overwhelming as expected–topping 90 percent–the truly relevant figure was the less than 18 percent turnout despite Morena having brazenly exceeded legal campaign limits. The result suggests that much of the support AMLO has repeatedly demonstrated in national polls is softer than he would hope, and the capacity of Morena’s get-out-the-vote efforts is weaker than needed to ensure a 2024 victory for AMLO’s chosen successor. Many Morena governors’ get-out-the-vote efforts fell short, including those of Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, who many see as AMLO’s heir apparent. They blamed the shortfall on the National Electoral Institute (INE), which set up a third as many voting booths as in the 2018 presidential election due to insufficient funds…”