On September 8, Mexico’s federal government presented its 2026 Budget (PE 2026), outlining fiscal, social, and trade priorities for the year ahead. Framed by global uncertainty, strained public finances, and recent constitutional reforms, the proposal represents one of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s most consequential challenges: balancing investor confidence with the administration’s social and economic priorities. 

The plan forecasts GDP growth of up to 2.8 percent, a sustainable debt path, and record-high tax revenues, while channeling significant spending to social programs and strategic infrastructure. It also introduces structural reforms to reinforce fiscal responsibility, streamline regulatory bodies, and modernize Mexico’s trade and customs system. 

Two trade-related dimensions stand out. First, a tariff reform bill submitted September 9 would adjust import and export taxes across more than 1,400 products — not primarily to raise revenue, but to support domestic industry, increase regional content, and reduce dependence on extra-regional suppliers, all within Mexico’s trade commitments. Second, a customs law reform aims to close fiscal loopholes, digitize procedures, and tighten enforcement in foreign trade operations. 

With the ruling coalition holding congressional majorities, swift approval is likely. But key questions remain: Can Mexico sustain fiscal discipline while expanding social spending? How will tariff and customs reforms affect competitiveness under USMCA? And what do these shifts mean for investor confidence, cross-border trade, and U.S.–Mexico relations? 

Join the Mexico Program at the Dialogue on Friday, October 10, 2025, from 10:00 AM–11:15 AM ET for a timely conversation on Mexico’s 2026 Budget, exploring its political dynamics, fiscal outlook, and trade implications for North America.  

Follow this event on X (formerly Twitter) at @The_Dialogue

This event will be held in English.

OPENING REMARKS

MARÍA CALDERÓN

Senior Program Associate, Mexico Program, Inter-American Dialogue

MODERATOR

VERÓNICA ORTIZ-ORTEGA

International Political Analyst and Podcast Host of Ventana Política (@veronicaortizo)

SPEAKERS

GUSTAVO ALMARAZ PETRIE

Executive President, Grupo Estrategia Política (@gustavoalmarazp)

SOFÍA RAMIREZ AGUILAR

General Director, México, cómo vamos? (@Sofia_RamirezA)

BRENDA GARCÍA FLORES

Partner Public Policy Leader S-LATAM, Deloitte