The Nicaraguan dictatorship is among the most ruthless in the world, and yet its behavior shows that the regime’s radicalization has still not reached a tipping point.   

As the country continues its authoritarian or dictatorial rule through force, censorship, isolationism, the formation of alliances with pariah states, and the criminalization of citizens, it is important to consider three reasons why applying proportional pressure matters. 

A THREATENING REGIME OF AN UNPREDICTABLE NATURE 

The Ortega-Murillo dictatorship is cause for real concern because of two key characteristics: first, the regime is prepared to do anything, internally and externally, to consolidate power, and second, it does not follow a political script or plan. It is unpredictable.   

In less than ten years, the dictatorship has provoked the expulsion of migrants, allowed its territory to be used as a transit point for hundreds of thousands of third-party nationals en route to the U.S.-Mexico border, signed security alliances with Russia, granted mining concessions (equal to at least one tenth of the country’s territory) to and received loans from China, harbored ties to organized crime or terrorist groups, facilitated transnational crime against civic leaders in exile, as well as drug trafficking, and expelled (or barred the entry of) foreign nationals and locals. 

Nicaraguan actions threaten national and regional stability; the regime acts unpredictably, but with the certainty that it will use all tools at its disposal to stay in power and counter U.S. and democratic interests. 

The unequivocally aggressive nature of these actions is highly risky, and jeopardizes hemispheric security: in the future, Murillo could harbor Iranian terrorists, grant residency to Cuban leaders to evade their capture, encourage another wave of migration in the face of an economic slowdown, or provoke another wave of domestic popular repression. 

A COUNTRY THAT, BY ANY INDICATOR, IS DETERIORATING 

Radicalization through state capture has created a situation in which citizens lack access to social safety nets and reliably competitive jobs. They also receive a remedial (at best) and highly politicized education. The quality of human capital in Nicaragua is far lower than it was ten years ago, and it is the most underperforming among all Dominican Republic – Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) members. 

But an economic downturn is settling in Nicaragua, resulting, at least over the next two years, from diminishing remittances (Nicaragua is the third most remittance-dependent country in the world), a growing trade deficit, stalled domestic activity, and declining external loans (multilateral banks are no longer prepared to continue lending). The situation is exacerbated by the country’s lack of any reliable economic policy beyond currency controls or an eventual limitation of the use of international reserves. The consequences will be long-lasting, depressing economic activity, increasing poverty and informality, and increasing the intention to migrate.

Nicaraguan migrant arrivals at the U.S.-Mexico border are already increasing, which points to the vulnerabilities Nicaraguans are faced with as their country continues to deteriorate. Experience from other Central American and Caribbean countries shows that social deterioration often gives way to transnational organized crime, social protest, and mass migration. As of 2026, at least 15% of Nicaraguan households have expressed an intention to migrate, the same as in 2024, despite more restrictive U.S. migration policies. Moreover, Nicaraguans have identified insecurity as the country’s second-most concerning problem for two consecutive years, after economic hardship. 

THE ROLE OF A WINNING COALITION 

The success of democratic transitions over the past quarter century has depended on three main efforts: coordinated international action, an electorate that rejects autocrats, and an organized civic movement. Nicaragua’s path to democratization also depends on these three factors, which international, inter-American, and U.S. actors have been proactive in promoting. However, making discontent visible among the electorate requires strategic approaches that amplify people’s voices without provoking repression. The country’s civic movement is weak, fragmented, and somewhat polarized, and it needs international support.   

Building a winning political coalition is central to stopping continued radicalization, and regional or global engagement can contribute significantly to this end. The current situation is unfavorable to the struggle for democracy, but international pressure can help build a strong, united, and organized opposition movement to counterbalance dictatorial rule. 

U.S. PRESSURE ON NICARAGUA 

Proportional responses to the regime are necessary to prevent continued external aggression, to mitigate domestic social deterioration that may evolve into state fragility, and to promote the development of a winning coalition that counters the prevailing balance of power.  

U.S. pressure should focus on the regime’s weaknesses and blind spots, including its kleptocratic practices, the forces it uses to repress and criminalize citizens, and the prevailing democratic spirit among Nicaraguans. A U.S. policy toward Nicaragua should be crafted, following the legacy of previous legislation (specifically, the 2018 NICA Act and 2021 RENACER Act) and tied to the new proposed bill. More engagement is also needed in the form of continued unilateral and multilateral pressure on areas benefiting the regime, including the CAFTA-DR agreement and international financial transactions that evade scrutiny and accountability. Finally, international actors should support and coordinate with Nicaraguan dissidents, democracy advocates, and civic leaders. These steps are intended to mitigate Nicaragua’s ongoing radicalization.