Introduction
The flow of money to Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026 will likely increase slightly, driven by diminishing annual changes in transactions, reflecting declining migration and limited increases in the principal remitted.
For outbound US remittances in 2026, growth may range from 0 percent to 4 percent, totaling an estimated US$138 billion, or 1 percent for the region among ten nationalities.
This piece provides remittance transfer volumes and projections for 2026. It uses US Census data calibrated with recent trends in regular and irregular migration, average remittance amounts, and survey data.
Typically, annual increases in transfers originating from new migrants’ senders account for a significant share of remittance growth, which varies with migration patterns. But the average principal amount typically accounts for most of the percentage increase, since these shifts are almost evenly distributed across all migrant senders—the standard deviation among senders is less than US$20 among all types of migrant senders.
2026 is unlikely to see an increase in the number of new migrants sending remittances. Unless conditions change unexpectedly, the average remittance ticket will remain the same as in 2025.
The levels of migration from Latin America and the Caribbean in 2018 were significantly higher than in previous years, contributing to the increase in the annual volume.
Between 2018 and 2024, new remittance senders accounted for 3 percent of all senders, helping maintain steady, high growth.
This coming year, that trend is likely to be under 1 percent or negative. Moreover, increases in the average remitted may be below 4 percent a year. As a result, a decline in the contribution of new remittance senders will slow growth.
The composition of remittance growth
Remittances flow and grow in response to factors and changes related to labor migration and conditions in the homeland. Specifically, changes in the number of migrants and the amount sent are two key variables that explain 99 percent of the variation.
The change in the number of migrants results from demographic dynamics and international labor mobility. In contrast, changes in the amount sent result from more fluid dynamics, such as wages, inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, or emotional decisions. Specifically,
Remittance Flow = { [∆m (MY +MRA) – (MSS-Dep) ] X $t01 }
∆m: change in the number of migrants.
MY: Young migrant senders (people joining the labor force and sending money);
MRA: Migrants recently arrived (through legal pathways, mostly H1B, H2A/H2B, and family reunification, and irregular migrant entry.
MSS: Migrants who stop sending
Dep: Migrants deported
$-t0: Principal remitted
A. Change in the number of migrants
Demographic Dynamics
Changes in the composition of a population group affect how many individuals send money, particularly in two aspects. First, those migrants who live in the host country and join the labor force start sending money to their relatives. This cohort comprises people aged 16–17 who start a job and begin to remit. This population varies by nationality, depending on the age of the migrant population. For Mexicans, for example, less than 0.4 percent of the migrant population is in that range. For Hondurans or Nicaraguans, the number is higher mainly because during the 2018–2024 period, migration was driven by family groups, including minors who reached adulthood in the U.S., joined the labor force, and started sending money.
Second, most migrants stop sending money after a specific remittance cycle. Our survey fieldwork shows that migrants have been sending for up to 30 years, and the percent distribution among those living in the U.S. for more than 20 years and who have been sending for close to 30 years ranges from 1 percent to 4 percent of the migrant remitting population, with Mexican migrants comprising the most significant portion.
Labor Migration Dynamics
The other key variable shaping changes in remittances sent to a homeland is the influx of new migrants into a host country. This migrant entry category includes people who enter through a regular pathway or without legal authorization to live and work.
The labor market shapes demand and drives migration (declining unemployment correlates with increasing regular and irregular migrant entry), in similar patterns. The numbers of migrants entering vary widely depending on nationality.
For example, since 2018, Mexican migration has been predominantly shaped by guest worker programs under the H2A and H2B visas, as well as the H1B and other programs, including visa entry on immigration status. Among Central Americans, migration is largely irregular.
Overall, the proportion of migrant arrivals between 2018 and 2024 averaged 4 percent of the total migrant population. However, it drops in 2024 and falls sharply in 2025 due to various factors, including migrant entry restrictions and changes in migrants’ intentions in the migrant-sending country.
Among some nationalities, due to deportations, the net variation in migrant arrivals is negative.
Putting these variables together yields a net increase in annual senders—those associated with changes in demographic cycles among migrants living in the United States and in net migration (arrivals and deportations)—which points to a negative trend among new remittance senders.
The table below shows the net number in the second column and the number of senders, making an average of 14 to 17 transactions a year.
B. Change in the amount sent
The other factor shaping the increase is the amount migrants transfer when sending money. Different dynamics shape these changes; they include increases in the cost of living in the homeland and in wages in the U.S. The chart below shows the weighted average of remittance transfers and wages in the U.S. for 20 years.
These numbers above, along with the averages, are essential because they offer insight into the direction remittance growth is taking. In 2025, remittances to Latin America and the Caribbean will register their most significant increase in the past 25 years—15 percent if Mexico is excluded. If Mexico is included, the figure changes to 7 percent.
The decline in remittance growth to Mexico is associated with a negative net replenishment of migrant remitters, as more people are dropping out of the pool of senders. In addition, unlike other nationalities, Mexican migration has increasingly been driven by a stable guest-worker program rather than other migration patterns, thus not adding more senders.
In other countries, while migration declines, the principal amount remitted per additional new migrant sender increases in 2025, but overall, it is negative. The table below shows that the average amount remitted increased by more than 20 percent in several countries.
The increase in the principal remitted stems from migrants’ risk-mitigation measures in the event of deportation, seeking to send as much as possible while they can, so their families can cushion those funds.
A Declining Trend in 2026?
The following year points to continued migration decline and increased deportation and removal of migrants in irregular status.
Assuming migrant numbers remain steady with no significant increase beyond inflation-adjusted levels, and remittance volumes stay consistent, growth in 2026 is expected to be modest—likely under 1 percent. This will largely depend on how migrants respond to economic conditions in their home countries and their purchasing power. The table below provides an estimate of US outbound money transfers for 2026.
