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From Scale to Systems: A Playbook for U.S.–Mexico Integration

North America’s integration no longer hinges on megaplants or trade volumes, but on the systems that let firms coordinate across the border.

For three decades, North American integration has been judged by what we can count—trade flows, ribbon cuttings, and the square footage of industrial parks. Those metrics capture scale but not how well firms work together. When a single port clogs or a specialized supplier goes offline, the limits of a volume‑first model become obvious.

A better approach starts in the middle of the chain. Instead of chasing the next megaproject, governments can build the coordination infrastructure that helps existing firms learn, certify, and sell across the border. Call this a systems agenda: modest budgets, fast starts, compounding gains.

Why the middle? Because shared components such as pumps and valves in energy and HVAC, connectors and sensors in electronics, and castings and precision parts in machinery connect multiple industries at once. Improving how these are certified, sourced, and financed spreads gains across sectors without favoring specific winners.

The region already co-produces. U.S. and Mexican firms exchange sub-assemblies, often across neighboring states. Yet the rules that govern those exchanges, including standards recognition, certification timelines, visibility into who can make what, and access to working capital, remain fragmented. On paper, the system looks integrated, but in practice small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) still navigate two parallel worlds.

That is what Border Value makes visible. Developed by Datawheel with support from the Open Society Foundations, the platform maps cross‑border value chains by combining public trade data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) with product‑to‑product links generated by the AI‑generated Production Network (AIPNET). It reveals how goods move between the two countries and where complements, bottlenecks, and missing links appear.

Consider two shared components: liquid pumps (HS 8413) and valves (HS 8481). They anchor multiple supply chains, linking upstream industries such as metals, machining, and electric motors with downstream systems in energy, HVAC, chemicals, and water management. In Border Value, these products appear together wherever machining and casting overlap—the same technical base (metals work, sealing, power electronics, and quality control) supports both sides.

Border Value Search, Liquid Pumps
Border Value Search, Liquid Pumps, courtesy of author
Border Value Search, Valves
Border Value Search, Valves, courtesy of author

Building coordination around mid‑chain products connects the whole network. When suppliers can certify once for multiple downstream buyers, efficiency turns into learning. The supply base deepens.

The pattern is clear. On the U.S. side, states with heavy industry and utilities demand certified pumps and valves. On the Mexican side, metalworking shops already machine, assemble, and repair them. The pieces fit—but not yet together. Many capable firms remain off buyers’ radar, meeting technical standards but missing certifications or visibility. Buyers duplicate audits and struggle to verify compliance. The outcome is underused capacity and needless dependence on distant suppliers.

Closing that gap does not require new bureaucracies—only rules that travel, information that is legible, and demand that signals clearly. First, we must enable recognition of test results from accredited conformity assessment bodies (CABs) across the border under USMCA’s Technical Barriers to Trade chapter. This reduces duplicative testing of the same product to meet comparable technical regulations without rewriting standards. Second, use the Good Regulatory Practices chapter to publish plans, share data behind draft rules, and coordinate reviews so approvals are predictable and transparent. Third, make the supplier base searchable by HS code and capabilities, so buyers can see qualified firms in both countries.

Public buyers—utilities, hospitals, and universities—can help open the market where purchases are not federally funded, or by complying with Build America, Buy America (BABA) requirements when federal funds are involved and using waivers where justified. That ensures pilots align with domestic content rules while still testing cross‑border coordination.

The NIST MEP Supplier Scouting program already matches capabilities to demand across the United States and supports BABA-related sourcing. A binational extension could build on that model—linking suppliers by HS code and process capabilities so that one query surfaces qualified firms on both sides of the border.

The architecture exists. Development banks can fund upgrades tied to delivery milestones, regulators can align safety and efficiency requirements for goods already traded across the border using USMCA tools, the SMEs chapter establishes cooperation and information‑sharing, the Competitiveness Committee can sponsor data‑sharing and pilot projects, and the Good Regulatory Practices chapter provides mechanisms for transparency and regulatory coordination.

Starting with pumps and valves is not the goal—it is the demonstration. If shared recognition of test results, supplier visibility, and transparent procurement shorten lead times in HS 8413 and HS 8481, the model can extend to connectors, sensors, and other cross‑cutting components.

North America does not lack factories; it lacks connective tissue. Moving from scale to systems means investing in shared data, recognized tests, and predictable procurement that let thousands of firms participate, not just a few.

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