The U.S. and Mexican governments have launched a bilateral task force to address illicit firearms trafficking, the U.S. State Department and Mexican foreign ministry announced Sept. 27. Authorities will use a new, U.S. government-created platform that will track “suspicious air shipments and packages” to aid efforts to interdict illegal weapons, as well as drugs, precursor chemicals and illicit fuel. To what extent might this new bilateral task force affect the flow of illicit arms between the United States and Mexico? What does the establishment of the task force signal about the state of U.S.-Mexican bilateral security cooperation? What more can be done to tackle the problem of organized criminal groups’ access to weapons in both countries?
R. Evan Ellis, Latin America research professor at the U.S. Army War College: “The initiative is important but should be understood in the context of the broader U.S.-Mexico Security Implementation Group, finalized during Secretary of State Rubio’s visit to Mexico in September. That framework itself grew out of the U.S.-Mexico bilateral security task force, established at the beginning of the year. As noted by the U.S. State Department announcement, the Security Implementation Group facilitates progress on a broad range of issues including controlling illicit fentanyl, migration, plus going after narcoterrorist groups, fuel theft and other enablers of the illicit economy that prejudice both nations. Within this framework, Mission Firewall expands use of the existing eTrace system to all 32 Mexican states and commits to expanded investigations and prosecutions of firearms trafficking and other contraband cases. It also creates a secure information platform for identifying suspicious air shipments and other packages that will help not only in stopping firearms trafficking, but drug and other contraband flows as well. Just as Mexico has taken important steps to accommodate U.S. concerns regarding migration and fentanyl flows, Mission Firewall demonstrates U.S. willingness to address Mexican concerns. It will likely contribute to President Sheinbaum’s high rate of approval, by showing that her style of working with the U.S. produces results and avoids unproductive fights. It showcases that U.S.-Mexico security cooperation is better than commonly realized, despite clashes between leaders in rhetoric and policy. Indeed, the U.S. and Mexico have long cooperated on the management of trade, investment and migration, as well as military cooperation, including regular exercises, embedded personnel and staff talks.”
Sam Logan, founder of Southern Pulse: “This announcement represents welcomed cooperation between two countries run by presidents with significantly different politics. There will be high-profile arrests and seizures attributed to the increased cooperation. That’s good news. A harder truth lies behind the headlines. Hardware is not smuggled in ‘paqueteria,’ so increased scrutiny on packages is more likely to find accessories, like holsters or straps, rather than actual weapons. The larger problem here is a lack of manpower and financial resources. There are simply not enough ATF agents to work cases, enhanced package screening or not. The eTrace system has been available in Mexico since 2008. Yet nearly half of Mexico’s states either lacked access or knowledge of how to use it. Also, there is no standard for how seized weapons data is organized across Mexico’s states and between federal, state and local judicial offices. Harmonization of data analysis should be prioritized. Bilateral information flow defines a task force. ‘Vetted’ agents are always engaged. But we all know there will be leaks. Criminal organizations are exceptionally effective at accessing intelligence. Under both the Trump and Sheinbaum administrations, corrupt practices have likely grown over time since both entered office. So corruption will present significant headwinds for this initiative, possibly reducing its effectiveness to near zero. True traction will be challenging. A closer bilateral relationship is a welcomed political result even if the means of achieving it is just more of the same underfunded, over-hyped and soon-to-be-forgotten intelligence sharing program.”
Cecily Fasanella, senior associate for the Americas at Albright Stonebridge Group: “After multiple public clashes—including Trump’s push to send U.S. troops to Mexico to combat cartels—the ‘Mission Firewall’ task force is a sign of greater alignment on the security front between the Sheinbaum and Trump administrations. Efforts under Mission Firewall include increased bilateral investigations and extension of the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ eTrace program to all 32 Mexican states. The initiative itself is not unprecedented—its predecessor, ‘Operation Without A Trace,’ also increased bilateral cooperation on arms trafficking, leading to more than 700 arrests and 1,900 seizures of firearms from 2020 to 2023; what is more notable is the two governments’ efforts to collaborate on a particularly thorny issue after months of tension. The highly sophisticated nature of organized crime in Mexico will continue to present challenges, and Mission Firewall’s success will depend on political will, resources and the specific objectives it sets. In addition to tracking potential reductions in arms flows, analysts should monitor for any spillover effects on trade dialogues. As seen during the February de-escalation of tariff threats after Mexico’s deployment of the national guard to the U.S. border, trade, migration and security objectives are closely linked in Trump 2.0 negotiations. A victory on the security front could either have a harmonizing effect on trade talks or be used as a bargaining chip for greater concessions.”
Diana Paz García, international security analyst: “The launch of Mission Firewall marks a significant step forward in combating illicit firearms trafficking and serves as a positive indicator of a renewed phase of U.S.-Mexico security cooperation. Born from the first new bilateral security dialogue, the initiative shows both countries’ willingness to re-engage and deepen collaboration—while carefully navigating each other’s red lines. It stands as a U.S. gesture of goodwill and a diplomatic win for Mexico, which has long urged Washington to take stronger action on weapons trafficking. The effectiveness of Mission Firewall, however, will depend on enforcement capacity, sustained funding and political will. While President Sheinbaum framed this initiative as the first formal U.S. recognition of responsibility for weapons trafficking, cooperation on curbing southbound weapons has existed since the Mérida Initiative. One flagship goal, the nationwide adoption of the eTrace system, has been on the agenda for almost two decades, and yet, progress remains uneven. As of 2023, half of Mexico’s states still lacked access or training, according to El País. This lag raises doubts about whether U.S. agencies will commit the necessary resources to expand eTrace and build technical capacity, especially amid ongoing budget restructures. The same concern applies to ballistic imaging efforts, which require costly equipment, training and maintenance—programs that some U.S. states have already abandoned due to their high costs. Unresolved and evolving issues around cross-border coordination may also shape the initiative’s success. The expanded investigatory powers of Mexico’s National Guard raise questions about whether its members will gain access to and training for these tools. Meanwhile, the U.S. designation of several Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations classifies knowingly providing them with firearms or ammunition as ‘material support’ for terrorism. As these legal and institutional shifts unfold, both governments will need to navigate how to align prosecution efforts, coordinate tools and integrate the new framework into their broader security cooperation.”
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