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Dilma Rouseff inherits a deeply strained US-Brazilian relationship. No matter how adroitly she manages foreign policy, it is now almost inevitable that the two countries will, for years to come, be colliding with one another. Their international agendas reflect divergent interests, priorities, and approaches. They will not always be able to keep disagreements in check.
In regional affairs, Brazil deeply irritated the US last year when it opposed the US’s access to Colombian bases—even though it later reached its own, albeit more modest, military accord with Washington. Brazil and the US continue to quarrel over Honduras, sustaining a divisive standoff in hemispheric relations. They also have polar opposite positions regarding Cuba.
But, US-Brazil ties will be most buffeted in the coming period by global, not regional, issues.
What most exasperates Washington is Brazil’s unwavering defense of Iran’s nuclear program along with its seeming indifference to Iran’s repression at home, support of terrorist groups, and unrelenting threats against Israel.
Brazil’s own nuclear program may soon become a contentious issue in US-Brazilian relations. The US is not today concerned about Brazil developing atomic weapons—but is troubled that its position on Iran and limits on inspections of its nuclear facilities will weaken global nonproliferation efforts. Ideally, nuclear development should be an area of cooperation. Washington’s three-year old agreement with India could serve as model for US technology transfer to Brazil—if Brazil were willing to actively support nonproliferation initiatives.
Trade is another source of friction. Last year, trade tensions rose sharply after Brazil prevailed in its WTO suit, which found US cotton subsidies to be illegal. Washington has defused the dispute by compensating Brazil for its lost cotton sales. But rampant US agriculture protectionism will remain a source of discord in bilateral relations. Brazil and the US share many interests in global commercial arrangements. Although it now appears unlikely, by joining forces, the US and Brazil would substantially increase the chances that the nearly moribund Doha global trade talks would have a productive outcome.
Brazil and the US will have major roles in addressing problems of climate change and energy . What is uncertain is whether on these and other issues, they will end up cooperating or clashing, but they will surely confront one another time and again in many different arenas.
Brazil has demonstrated its independence from the US and shown its ability to pursue its international aims without US support. Brazil is not ready to shift to a close, cooperative relationship. Despite its rising profile and influence, the US does not yet view Brazil as a potential strategic ally either as a crucial economic actor or as a major player on critical security issues. And the US sees Brazil’s foreign policy on issues of human rights, democracy, and nonproliferation as erratic.
Still, even with their strained relations, Brazil and the US have never considered themselves adversaries. Both governments are willing to tolerate considerable disagreement and cooperate in specific instances. For the US and an increasingly powerful Brazil to build a constructive relationship into the future, however, will demand far greater effort and attention by both governments than has been the case to date. Still, conflict may be more common than partnership. That should be expected when two powerful countries have to contend with one another.
Complete article via Folha de S. Paulo.
