Senator Rodrigo Paz and former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga led the first round of Bolivia’s presidential election on Aug. 17, advancing to a runoff scheduled for Oct. 19, according to preliminary official results. Paz received 32 percent and Quiroga won 27 percent of valid votes; 22 percent of the electorate in the compulsory voting round did not select any candidate. The campaign, during which incumbent President Luis Arce opted not to run for re-election, has been marked by political fragmentation and the disqualification of former President Evo Morales’ candidacy, as well as ongoing escalating foreign reserve and fuel crises. Who is best positioned to become Bolivia’s next president? What do the election results suggest about Bolivian voters’ top priorities? To what extent does politically motivated violence pose a risk between now and the runoff?
Kathryn Ledebur, director of the Andean Information Network in Cochabamba: “Polls underestimated Paz’s popularity, but a runoff between two right-wing candidates was expected. Heated protests and government repression seem unlikely until the new administration implements policy changes. Both candidates represent the traditional political elite. Their proposals to decrease state benefits risk increasing poverty and limiting the rights of Indigenous and rural populations, whose standard of living increased under Morales. Quiroga promotes IMF credits, privatization of state companies and austerity measures. He supports pro-U.S. alignment and forced coca eradication, which provoked gross human rights violations during his previous term as president. In contrast, Paz, son of MIR leader Jaime Paz and Quiroga’s former ally, claims to be a new political alternative, but Paz is no centrist. He’s moved from one neoliberal party to the next. He’s a surrogate for the reconstruction of the traditional right. His vague platform relies on slogans, including ‘capitalism for all.’ He proposes liberalization of exports, a 50/50 distribution of fiscal income between the central and regional governments and partial privatization of state-run enterprises. Paz’s milder discourse appealed to undecided and disenchanted MAS voters. His running mate’s strong social media presence and anti-corruption platform significantly increased his popularity, despite corruption allegations against Paz. Doria Medina, as well as his former party mate and far-right coup leader Luis Fernando Camacho, immediately pledged their support for Paz, belying more conservative ties and potential policies. Paz appears to have the strategic advantage, but that could change significantly. Although it’s unclear who will prevail, the right has secured a two-thirds majority in Congress, allowing it to modify the constitution, which both candidates support.”
Eric Jacobstein, former deputy assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs and senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue: “After nearly two decades in power, the defeat of Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) at the polls on Sunday came as little surprise. Inflation in Bolivia has nearly doubled, rising from 12 percent in January to 23 percent by June, while crippling fuel shortages continue to force citizens to wait hours in gas station lines. In reflecting on Sunday’s outcome, one cannot help but think of James Carville’s dictum from Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’ While the decisive rejection of the MAS was not a surprise, Senator Rodrigo Paz’s emergence as the front-runner for the Oct. 19 second round caught many off guard. Senator Paz’s ability to claim the centrist mantle likely proved useful in bringing on board many Bolivians who are tired of the status quo but less enthusiastic about a sharp right-wing turn. Paz also benefited from his running mate, Edman Lara–a political outsider and former police captain turned TikTok star–who energized young voters. As Bolivians head into the second round in October, the momentum behind Senator Paz and Edman Lara–bolstered by the endorsement of first-round candidate Samuel Doria Medina–positions them as formidable contenders and poses a steep challenge for former President Tuto Quiroga. The Organization of American States (OAS) deserves credit for its strong election observation and will play a vital role as watchdogs ahead of and during the second round, as Bolivians push for free and fair elections and work to prevent politically motivated violence. As multiple crucial elections approach across the hemisphere–especially in Honduras, which has struggled with fair electoral processes in the past–the oversight of the OAS and other electoral observation missions will be indispensable.”
Robert Albro, associate director at American University’s Research Center for Latin American & Latino Studies: “The surprising first-place finish of centrist Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia’s presidential election on Sunday signals the end of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party’s long run of dominance. But it may not indicate a rightward shift so much as a rejection of the political status quo. Paz’s unexpected win appears the result of several factors. Many onetime MAS supporters have tired of the party’s fractious feuding, no longer view it or its leaders as credible and blame MAS for Bolivia’s disastrous economic state. Evo Morales’ loyal base appeared to heed his call by delivering a large number of null votes, detracting from the totals of left-wing candidates. Paz’s running mate proved highly popular, as a political outsider and former police captain who denounced police and judicial corruption and ran a savvy social media campaign. And, while right-wing candidate Tuto Quiroga finished second, voters appeared hesitant to fully embrace the right. This might reflect a desire to preserve MAS-era social policies, a distrust of the right after its chaotic recent interim government, as well as the fresh memory of authoritarianism. Paz is an experienced politician, a pragmatist and not an ideologue. He campaigned on relieving economic hardship by promising to curb runaway inflation, reduce taxes, remove import restrictions on fuel, decentralize the economy and broaden access to credit. If Paz wins the October runoff, his biggest challenge will be governing, despite the right’s control of the Senate, which might lead to new configurations of political gridlock.”
Cecília Godoy, analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at the Economist Intelligence Unit: “The electoral outlook is highly uncertain heading into the October runoff, particularly given the high number of spoiled ballots, which highlight broad voter dissatisfaction with the political landscape. Rodrigo Paz retains a modest advantage heading into the second round. He has positioned himself as a centrist acceptable to both the far left and conservative right, drawing support from moderate voters disillusioned with MAS governance but wary of a more right-wing alternative. Samuel Doria Medina—who secured nearly a fifth of valid votes—has also signaled he will endorse Paz, providing him with additional momentum. Both candidates have pledged to move away from the interventionist economic model associated with MAS governments. Paz has focused on pragmatic reforms centered on fiscal discipline and institutional strengthening, while Quiroga has taken a more explicitly pro-business stance, stressing the importance of private investment in sectors such as mining and hydrocarbons. A runoff between two pro-market candidates is likely to reduce the risk of a polarized contest, lowering electoral uncertainty. The swift recognition of results by losing candidates should further limit the risk of unrest, though the spoiled-vote campaign reflects lingering disaffection that could continue to weigh on political stability. The first-round results also mark a major turning point in Bolivia’s politics, underscoring the collapse of the MAS’ nearly two decades of uninterrupted dominance. The MAS candidate, former Interior Minister Eduardo del Castillo, barely met the threshold to retain the party’s legal status, reflecting frustration with political infighting and economic mismanagement.”
Ximena Velasco Guachalla, assistant professor in the Department of Government at the University of Essex: “Expectations for a runoff in the national elections were high. However, the rise of Rodrigo Paz, who garnered overwhelming support to secure first place, came as a surprise to both citizens and analysts alike. Paz was not even in the top three in any of the polls leading up to election day. With a five-point lead over the second-place candidate, Jorge Quiroga, the backing of Samuel Doria Medina, who finished third, and a message of political renewal, Paz has a strategic advantage heading into the October runoff. His narrative of political renewal seems to resonate strongly with voters, who view the same political figures on both the right and left as contributors to the nation’s ongoing problems. Consequently, political renewal and economic recovery are at the forefront of voters’ priorities in the current context. Meanwhile, Evo Morales celebrated the nearly 20 percent of null votes, which he had campaigned for, arguing that such a significant percentage indicates a clear message of a lack of representativeness and legitimacy in the electoral process. Several factors suggest that Morales has at least passively accepted the election results. First, there was no unrest during the election process, a concern for many in the months leading up to Aug. 17. Second, he campaigned for and celebrated the null votes, which made him an active participant in the election process and outcome. Finally, he refrained from issuing any messages during or after the election that prompted worry over street mobilizations; on the contrary, he remarked that their protests materialized in the null vote. These actions indicate, at least for now, a level of passive acceptance of the election outcomes on Morales’s part.”
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