Just ahead of the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remain locked in a virtual tie in a runoff scenario, according to the latest polls. The election comes amid an unprecedented crisis in Brazil’s Supreme Court involving investigations into failed lender Banco Master. What is driving Bolsonaro’s recent gains in the polls to pull even with Lula? What is the impact of the crisis in the Supreme Court? If no candidate wins a majority of votes in the first round, what factors are likely to determine which candidate can consolidate enough support to win the Oct. 25 runoff?
Karina Stange Calandrin, professor of international relations at Sorocaba University and Ibmec-São Paulo: “Flávio Bolsonaro’s recent gains reflect less a sudden expansion of bolsonarismo than the consolidation of an electorate already strongly opposed to Lula. Bolsonaro has benefited from his father’s political capital, high anti-incumbent sentiment, dissatisfaction with the economy and the perception that he is now the right’s most viable candidate. He also presents a less confrontational style than Jair Bolsonaro, which may help him reach conservative voters who rejected the former president’s behavior but remain unwilling to support Lula. The Supreme Court crisis reinforces Flávio’s central campaign narrative: that political and judicial institutions have acted selectively against the Bolsonaro family. Allegations involving Banco Master and members of the court can weaken the court’s credibility and, by association, hurt Lula, especially because many voters perceive his government and the court as belonging to the same political and institutional camp. Nevertheless, the crisis could also mobilize voters who fear renewed attacks on democratic institutions. In a runoff, the decisive issue will be which candidate can reduce their rejection rate. Lula will need to reconnect with lower-income voters and convince the electorate that economic conditions are improving. Flávio, meanwhile, must expand beyond the hard-right base without reviving fears associated with his father’s presidency. Endorsements from defeated center-right candidates, evangelical mobilization, regional voting patterns, turnout and developments in the Banco Master investigation will also be crucial. With such a polarized electorate, the campaign between rounds may be determined less by enthusiasm than by which candidate voters fear or reject the least.”
Mariano Machado, principal analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft: “Flávio Bolsonaro is consolidating the anti-Lula vote, with final polls casting the die on a two-horse race. Smaller conservative campaigns are losing momentum, as voters perceive Flávio as the most effective vehicle for change. On the other side, Lula’s polling ceiling reflects the gap between improved headline economic metrics (lower inflation and unemployment) and weaker household finances (amid high food prices, debt and interest rates). Meanwhile, the Banco Master-fueled Supreme Court crisis damages both front-runners and helps neither. Justice Alexandre de Moraes’ run-in with the Bolsonaro family allows Flávio to claim a court bias toward Lula. But Flávio’s reported links to Banco Master’s former head, alongside fresh scrutiny of his congressional spending proposals, prevents him from owning the anti-corruption argument. The latest revelations are more likely to reinforce voter abstention than encourage any transfer of votes. The larger casualty is the legitimacy of the federal courts, especially if the presidential election result is disputed. With both contenders facing high rejection levels, a runoff hinges on turning out more voters. For Flávio, the vote-transfer arithmetic is easier. Centrist parties can supply him with resources and local organization—albeit official endorsements do not automatically translate into more votes. Moreover, the reported front-loading of the campaign to secure a first-round knockout could leave the war-chest short. Lula still has stronger machinery. The Workers’ Party network, deep roots in the northeast and the advantages of incumbency, including social programs reaching roughly 18 million households, mean that his floor is likely well above that suggested by polls.”
Thomas Traumann, political risk consultant and economics and politics analyst for GloboNews and O Globo: “Polls point to the strengths of the polarization between supporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his Workers’ Party (PT) and those backing the family of former President Jair Bolsonaro. This marks the third consecutive time the PT and the Bolsonaros have faced off in a runoff. Jair Bolsonaro won in 2018, Lula won in 2022 and Lula will now face Jair’s eldest son, Flávio Bolsonaro. With nearly 90 percent of Brazilians expected to vote for one of the two candidates in the first round, the campaign will be decided by fine margins. Contrary to the assumptions of the Lula and Bolsonaro camps, the campaign’s main debate was not public security, work-schedule reform nor fears of U.S. interference in local politics, but rather a corruption scandal involving banker Daniel Vorcaro. Police investigations revealed that Vorcaro’s Banco Master had hired the law firm headed by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes’ wife for nearly $9 million a year. Since De Moraes presided over the trial that sentenced Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years in prison for attempting a coup d’état, this revelation boosted his son’s campaign. At the same time, the disclosure that Flávio Bolsonaro himself secured $12 million to ostensibly produce a film about his father has also put the candidate on the defensive. Further new revelations regarding this corruption scandal could decide the election.”
Thiago Amâncio, associate director of Control Risks: “Flávio Bolsonaro’s recent gains are partly driven by the Supreme Court crisis, even though he is the candidate with the clearest reported connection to the Banco Master scandal. As the investigation has expanded to involve judges and politicians across the political spectrum, it has reinforced a broader perception of deteriorating ethical standards and generated anti-establishment sentiment. Paradoxically, Bolsonaro has benefited from this mood despite being part of the political establishment: a senator, the son of a former president and a longstanding political figure. The anti-establishment reaction affects Lula more because he is the incumbent and is historically associated by opponents with a wider system of corruption. Bolsonaro’s rise also reflects anticipation of the runoff. Some right-wing voters who may feel more closely aligned with candidates such as Renan Santos or Augusto Cury are moving toward Bolsonaro in the first round to reduce the possibility of a Lula victory. This is common and expected. This strategic voting was also visible in 2022: Voters support the candidate best positioned to defeat what they regard as the greater threat even if another candidate more closely reflects their preferences. For this reason, the usual description of the runoff as a ‘new election’ is less applicable. The first round is already functioning as the beginning of an extended runoff that will continue for another four weeks. Neither leading candidate is likely to win an outright majority on Sunday. Non-aligned voters will therefore be crucial, particularly those focused on household finances. Lula is already targeting this group by campaigning against online betting platforms, an issue that attracts support across otherwise divided sections of the electorate.”
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