Incumbent President Daniel Noboa and leftist challenger Luisa González advanced to a second-round runoff in Ecuador’s presidential vote on Sunday. In the first round, each candidate received around 44 percent of the vote. Noboa’s political party, Acción Democrática Nacional, won 66 seats in the country’s National Assembly, 10 seats short of an outright majority. Which presidential candidate is best positioned to win the runoff on April 13? What issues will decide the runoff? What’s the significance of the National Assembly results?

Laura Lizarazo, Ecuador lead analyst at Control Risks in Bogotá: “González, unlike Noboa, is backed by a well-established party with a sound voter base, clear ideological foundations and a membership network with a rooted presence in several provinces. Her chances to gather fragmented votes among left- and center-leaning citizens, including amid powerful Indigenous organizations, labor unions and students are greater than Noboa’s, who already has the vote of those who oppose a correismo comeback. However, being a candidate with presidential prerogatives and faculties, besides being a business tycoon with an extensive supporter network among traditional media, Noboa has a better communication and marketing platform to attract young voters. And he can still capitalize on the deeply rooted rejection that Correa sparks among at least 30 percent of Ecuadoreans. Citizens’ main concerns are the country’s persisting violence and insecurity (34.8 percent), unemployment (21.4 percent) and poor economic performance (12.6 percent). Nostalgia about a peaceful, pre-crisis Ecuador during Correa’s administration of 2007-17 and feelings of disappointment after eight years of right-wing governments are likely to put social and welfare policies at the center of voters’ demands. The candidate who builds the most appealing, emotionally engaging discourse around these issues is likely to tip the balance in her or his favor. However, should a black swan event—such as a new prison riot, mass killings, the targeted assassination of a political leader, an armed assault on a private or public building or the kidnapping of a high-profile businessperson —occur before the runoff, indecisive voters will likely back Noboa, who will intensify his hardline discourse against organized crime. Lastly, a divided legislature with no majority but two equally strong minorities, Noboa’s ADN and González’s Citizen Revolution party, will pose significant governance challenges to the coming administration, which will inevitably have to compromise on key agenda points and build a fluid, highly transactional partnership with Pachakutik and the Social-Christian parties.”

Manuela L. Picq, senior lecturer of political science at Amherst College and editor of Public Humanities: “This may be the most polarized election in Ecuador’s history. With 16 candidates running for presidential office and more than 2,000 for legislature, the race has now narrowed to two candidates who each secured 44 percent of the national vote. Conservative incumbent President Daniel Noboa was expected to lead over his leftist rival Luisa González, but with less than half a percentage point of difference, it’s a technical tie. Noboa and González stand on opposite sides of the spectrum. Noboa, son of the business tycoon of a banana empire, runs a party he created. González is a lawyer, once teen mother, running as heir of former President Rafael Correa under the country’s strongest leftist movement, Revolución Ciudadana. The tie is surprising because Revolución Ciudadana broke a ceiling that had kept it close to 35 percent of the vote in previous elections. The contenders have much in common, from authoritarian practices and censorship, to disregard of the courts and constitution, while promoting extractive mining projects on natural and Indigenous areas. Voters are concerned with security, but even if Noboa’s tough stance on crime differs from González’s inclusive promises, both have turned a blind eye to criminal actors. With the runoff on April 13, Noboa and González have two months to compete for the 5 percent of the votes that went to third-place candidate Indigenous leader Leonidas Izá. This vote will determine the outcome of the runoff, yet it could go either way. While the Indigenous vote is organic, it is not disciplined. The left is the natural ally in Indigenous politics, but Correa’s decade of repression against Indigenous movements will not be forgotten easily. Whoever wins will have to navigate a highly polarized National Assembly. Noboa and González nearly split the 151 legislative seats, with eight seats to the Indigenous party Pachakutik. Indigenous politics may be back—crushed, but not defeated.”

Diego Andrés Almeida, managing partner at Almeida Guzmán & Asociados in Ecuador: “Ecuadoreans are under the impression that Sunday’s results are a defeat for Noboa. However, he surpassed his previous first-round election by almost 20 percentage points. Due to the errors/manipulation of several polls, many of his supporters assumed that he would win the first round by a larger margin. As of now, it seems that neither candidate will have an advantage in the second round. Security, corruption and electricity (due to droughts in March) are the major issues in the upcoming election. Capturing votes from candidates who will not run in the second round is the biggest challenge for both candidates. In any case, those votes do not represent more than 10 percent, which, from a practical perspective, could easily swing in either direction. Absent votes represented approximately 17 percent of the voting population. The results at the National Assembly favor Noboa. For the first time in 17 years, Correa’s movement lost the assembly. Both parties still need consensus with other political movements to gain control of the legislature to pass legislation. During the campaign, support from neoliberal pundits hurt Noboa’s chances, with messages that were not well received by voters who support stronger state intervention. To win, Noboa needs to be more receptive to the needs of those at the bottom of the pyramid, who demand an increase in social expenditures despite fiscal policies required to comply with international lenders. To succeed, González must distance from former ‘Correistas’ associated with corruption during past regimes.”

Joseph Weiman, Latin America-focused geopolitical analyst and consultant: “President Daniel Noboa is well-positioned to win the runoff vote on April 13 despite the closeness of the first round. Noboa narrowly secured the most votes, trailed by former assembly member Luisa González by a margin of around 0.3 percent. The runoff will be determined by voters who either believe that Noboa has improved Ecuador during his 14-month term or by voters who more fondly remember González’s close ally, former President Rafael Correa. Noboa inherited a challenging political landscape but has made visible efforts to reduce crime and mend a crumbling energy grid, and he has secured an IMF deal valued at $4 billion. While homicides spiked in January, the homicide rate fell by around 15.3 percent last year, indicating positive results from Noboa’s ‘state of internal conflict’ declaration. Challenges with power generation (around 70 percent of overall generation is from hydropower) have mostly been outside of Noboa’s control: drought conditions and poorly maintained and constructed power plants. That said, his government has leased three energy generator ships from Turkey between 2024 and 2025 to support the country’s energy supply. Finally, securing an IMF deal demonstrates his willingness to make much needed macroeconomic reforms, even though it had political costs. González’s candidacy is dependent on her political connection to Correa, since her time in government was cut short following the ‘muerte cruzada’ in 2023. As such, many seem to support her based on the positive economic gains made during Correa’s rule. Between February and April, my view is that Noboa will attempt to continue providing tangible improvements in Ecuadoreans’ lives to secure him the presidency for a full term. However, if he is unsuccessful, Ecuadoreans’ nostalgia for the Correa years will pave the way for a González win.”