Guatemala recently extradited to the United States Roberto Carlo Girón Hernández, whom U.S. authorities accuse of leading a cocaine trafficking network, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida announced Sept. 9. The announcement came a month after U.S. authorities announced the extradition to the United States of another Guatemalan, Romeo Ramos Cruz, who is accused of being a key member of a drug trafficking organization. How well are the administrations of U.S. President Donald Trump and Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo cooperating on antidrug efforts? How has Arévalo’s cooperation with Trump on security and migration affected Guatemala and its broader relationship with the United States? How do Guatemala-U.S. ties affect Arévalo’s public standing in Guatemala and his ability to pursue other parts of his agenda?
Brian Nichols, former U.S. assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs: “Under President Bernardo Arévalo’s reformist banner, Guatemala is attempting something that has long eluded its leaders: anchoring U.S. partnership in the fight against crime within a broader commitment to institutional integrity. In March 2024, Arévalo consolidated counternarcotics and border security functions under a single entity, ending a previously fragmented and failed approach. For decades, Guatemala served as a conduit for cocaine shipments from Colombia and Ecuador coursing toward U.S. markets. But now, authorities report a three-fold increase in narcotics seizures—a shift, small but real, in the logic of impunity. The extradition of Roberto Carlo Girón Hernández, alias El Gordo, to the United States underscores that shift. Girón is the fifth trafficker sent northward this year. Alleged to have served as a crucial link between Colombia’s Clan del Golfo and Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, Girón’s extradition could provide crucial information that will hobble both organizations, at least temporarily. That said, the challenge is deeper than high-profile arrests. Organized criminal networks have long embedded themselves in Guatemala’s legislature, judiciary and Public Ministry—in no small part through the very office of Attorney General Consuelo Porras, whom the Biden administration sanctioned for obstructing anticorruption efforts. Traffickers launder drug money through Guatemalan real estate, construction, mining and ranching, often plowing that drug money into bribery of local officials. As assistant secretary of state for the Western Hemisphere during the Biden administration, I met with then-candidate Bernado Arévalo and later attended his inauguration after his electoral victory. Arévalo underscored his commitment to a new way of doing business in Guatemala and has not recoiled from pushing for deep reforms that challenge corrupt entrenched interests. His administration has also embraced robust cooperation with Washington on migration, agreeing to accept more deportation flights and forging new protocols to counter transnational crime. These steps—restructuring security operations, escalating seizures and extraditing high-value targets—represent modest payments on a vast debt owed to rule of law. Whether they translate into deeper institutional reform remains the question Guatemala’s citizens and its foreign partners will be watching.”
Stephen McFarland, former U.S. ambassador to Guatemala: “The extradition to the United States of accused Guatemalan narcotrafficker Roberto Girón Hernández reflects a stronger partnership between the United States and Guatemala. Under President Trump, the main American objectives have been increased cooperation on migration and narcotics trafficking; the Arévalo government has nearly doubled the return of migrants, and it has also increased drug interdiction (which had dwindled under the Giammattei government) and the extradition of accused traffickers. A third objective is improving Guatemalan port security. Girón’s extradition is significant. First, the charges that Girón facilitated cocaine shipments from Colombia’s Clan del Golfo to Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel for transfer to the United States illustrate Guatemala’s strategic importance in the drug trade. Second, this and other extraditions reflect increased Guatemalan capacity and political will. Guatemalan police units presumably cooperated with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in identifying and capturing Girón—no small feat in a country where there are few secrets—and in ensuring Girón remained detained. Guatemala’s attorney general, whose U.S. visa was revoked for corruption, also cooperated, as did the judiciary. And third, the extradition underscores the importance to the United States that Guatemala’s next attorney general—the incumbent’s term expires next May—be honest and independent. Guatemala’s attorney general and other politicians accused of corruption have sought to stymie President Arévalo’s administration. The strong bilateral relationship, epitomized by Secretary Rubio’s February visit to Guatemala, has been critical for Arévalo. The selection process for the new attorney general will test Arévalo’s leadership and his ability to maintain Guatemala’s support for shared U.S.-Guatemala interests.”
Sarah Phillips, manager for Northern Latin America at McLarty Associates: “Despite ideological differences, Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo and U.S. President Donald Trump have established a pragmatic, working relationship focused on several key areas: counternarcotics, security, trade and immigration. The extradition of two high-profile drug traffickers from Guatemala to the United States demonstrates the Arévalo administration’s willingness to align with U.S. counternarcotics interests in the region. Against this backdrop, the Guatemalan government has also announced the creation of a new special command to fight organized transnational crime and implemented new regulation to better control and investigate chemicals used to make synthetic drugs. These moves have helped solidify Guatemala as a significant partner to the Trump administration beyond traditional areas of cooperation such as immigration. During Arévalo’s tenure, corrupt networks have undermined the president’s ability to make headway with his political agenda and implement policies efficiently. While the Biden administration sanctioned several undemocratic actors in Guatemala, the Trump administration appears more focused on other areas of the bilateral relationship, including trade, immigration and security. This shift in U.S.-Guatemala policy could introduce political stability risks to the Guatemalan government as endemic corruption weighs on Arévalo’s agenda. At the same time, Guatemala and the United States maintain strong economic and commercial ties. The United States is a key trading partner for Guatemala and has historically maintained a trade surplus with the Central American country. Indeed, the U.S. Army Corps’ modernization of the Puerto Quetzal port underscores Guatemala’s preference for the United States as its partner of choice. Looking ahead, the Arévalo administration appears poised to continue its strategy of leveraging bilateral cooperation to support economic and other ties.”
Marina Pera, senior analyst for North America at Control Risks: “Recent extraditions reflect a broader context of security cooperation between Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo and U.S. President Donald Trump. In February, Arévalo agreed to accept deportation flights (including those with non-Guatemalan migrants). By June, he announced plans to establish a specialized police unit to patrol Guatemala’s borders with Honduras and El Salvador, aiming to curb irregular migration. Also in June, U.S. Customs and Border Protection started to collaborate directly with Guatemalan customs to enforce stricter port security protocols. Despite lacking ideological alignment, Arévalo and Trump have built a productive working relationship. Arévalo has remained in good standing with the Trump administration. One of the results of this cooperation is that the United States has not lifted sanctions or travel bans that former President Joe Biden implemented on Guatemalan politicians and judicial officials implicated in corruption. This outcome is a political win for Arévalo, aligning with his anti-corruption agenda and campaign promises, and surprising sanctioned individuals who had lobbied in Washington against him. Cooperating with Trump’s security priorities also benefits Guatemala’s economy by safeguarding trade flows and investment projects with its top economic partner. However, this unexpected alliance has created friction with conservative opposition figures, including members of the judiciary, military and business elite, who had anticipated Trump would support their stance against Arévalo. While the partnership highlights Arévalo’s diplomatic acumen, it also complicates his ability to advance other parts of his agenda. Negotiations in Congress remain difficult, prompting him to pursue a case-by-case strategy, especially for business-friendly legislation, which typically faces less resistance.”
Tiziano Breda, senior analyst for Latin America and the Caribbean at ACLED: “President Arévalo has been walking a thin line between accommodating Washington’s demands and maintaining a principled approach to security and migration. On the one hand, he has not confronted Trump but has instead been eager to accept growing deportation flights, expand the U.S. presence in the Puerto Quetzal port, seize a growing amount of drugs, as well as detain and extradite drug traffickers. On the other, he has maintained a discourse that prioritizes legality and respect for the rule of law over punitive populism, without following the White House’s decision to merge the war on drugs with the war on terrorism. This strategy has allowed him to defuse tensions with the United States and the subsequent criticism from opposition forces but also appease those parts of his Semilla party’s support base who would not have welcomed a too servile approach toward Washington. However, cordial relations with the United States have not prevented Guatemala from being severely hit by Trump’s decision to dismantle foreign aid, which supported the government’s plans to reduce migration by fostering local economies and improving health and education services in the country. Also, Arévalo still faces greater domestic challenges to the implementation of his agenda than the relationship with the United States: insufficient votes in Congress, judicial persecution from the attorney general’s office and a surge in gang violence prompted by the renewed competition between the MS-13 and the 18th Street gang for the control of extortion and drug peddling activities in the capital and surroundings.”
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