The Brazil Program at the Inter-American Dialogue has launched Ground Truth: Elections 2026, a year-long featured project focused on the 2026 electoral cycles in Brazil and the United States. The project will provide data-driven analysis and strategic insights to help policymakers, business leaders, and stakeholders navigate a period of heightened political uncertainty in both countries.
Ground Truth is a strategic partnership led by the Brazil Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, in collaboration with senior fellow Clifford Young, chair of Ipsos, and Mauricio Moura, board member of IDEIA. The project is designed to help decision-makers anticipate policy directions, assess political and regulatory risks, and understand how electoral outcomes in Brazil and the United States may shape bilateral relations and each country’s foreign policy trajectory.
Through the project, partners receive periodic, forward-looking assessments of key electoral developments in both countries, access to exclusive briefings and closed-door events, and privileged access to an exclusive intelligence platform developed by IDEIA.
For more information about how to join the Brazil Program and have access to the Ground Truth briefings, events and platform, please contact Giulia Branco Spiess at gbrancospiess@thedialogue.org
FROM OUR EXPERTS
In Brazil, the 2026 elections will mark a pivotal moment. Voters will choose a president and vice president, renew the entire house of representatives, elect two-thirds of the Federal Senate, and select governors across the country. The race unfolds after years of institutional strain, rapid political realignments, and entrenched polarization that now defines Brazil’s political landscape. The context is further shaped by the conviction and imprisonment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, the reorganization of the Brazilian right, and ongoing uncertainty over who will ultimately challenge incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In parallel, the United States will undergo a consequential electoral cycle in 2026, with midterm elections in November that will shape congressional dynamics and the balance of power among the branches of government. Looking ahead, what really matters, beyond candidates and polls, to understand where democracy and voter behavior are headed in Brazil and the United States?
Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Program at the Inter-American Dialogue:
“To understand where democracy and voter behavior are headed in Brazil and the United States as we approach 2026, relevant signals are structural: how insecurity is translated into politics, how institutions are being adjusted to manage that insecurity, and how legislative power is being redistributed. Four dynamics merit attention.
1. How insecurity is politicized differs sharply across the two countries.
In the United States, voter anxiety remains outward facing. Political conflict is organized around boundaries, immigration, citizenship, and national belonging. Elections increasingly revolve around who is entitled to full membership in the political community and whether the original social contract is being diluted. In Brazil, insecurity is inward facing. Political conflict is not centered on entry, but on authority. Anxiety reflects disputes over hierarchy, status, and social displacement in a persistently unequal and increasingly insecure society. This dynamic favor appeals to order, discipline, and protection over agendas focused on inclusion or redistribution.
2. In Brazil, legislative elections are as consequential as the presidency.
While public attention remains concentrated on the presidential race, the legislative elections will be equally decisive. Congress has accumulated power over budgets and legislation while losing its capacity for internal governance.
Institutional norms have weakened. Physical confrontations in the plenary, the use of legislative police to remove representatives, and the erosion of informal enforcement mechanisms point to declining self-regulation. At the same time, the current leadership of the house lacks the authority once exercised by previous speakers, creating an environment in which agreements are unstable and commitments are frequently reversed. When Congress fails to discipline its own members, by disregarding court orders or refusing to revoke mandates, the judiciary intervenes. This produces a reinforcing cycle: Legislative dysfunction leads to judicial action, which in turn intensifies accusations of judicial overreach and further strains relations between branches.
3. The Senate has become Brazil’s central institutional safeguard.
An important shift ahead of 2026 is the growing centrality of the Senate in Brazil’s institutional balance. The executive branch is prioritizing Senate races not primarily to advance its legislative agenda, but to prevent institutional disruption—especially efforts to impeach supreme federal court justices. This strategy has redirected senior political figures toward Senate contests rather than gubernatorial races. The contrast is instructive: Segments of the right recognized the strategic value of legislative control earlier, while the left is now attempting to compensate. Senate outcomes will therefore affect not only policy, but the stability of constitutional constraints.
4. Electoral conflict is increasingly governed through regulation, particularly online.
Brazil is developing an unusually assertive framework to regulate electoral information. Electoral authorities are acting in advance to limit the use of deepfakes, coordinated disinformation, and content that undermines confidence in the electoral process. Digital platforms are being assigned direct responsibility, including obligations to remove certain categories of content without prior judicial orders. Campaign material generated with artificial intelligence will require explicit disclosure. Public security has also been incorporated into electoral oversight. Specialized task forces are targeting the financing of candidates by organized criminal groups, reflecting concerns about the penetration of illicit actors into formal politics. For technology, media, and communications firms, this implies higher regulatory exposure and a shift toward faster, more discretionary enforcement.”
Clifford Young, senior fellow at the Brazil Program:
“This year’s two major elections, in the United States and Brazil, offer a clear reminder of democracy in action. They place two large, complex societies in motion, with hundreds of millions of citizens heading to the polls. At the same time, both elections are shaped by powerful social forces now reshaping democratic politics. On the one hand, there is a widespread belief that the system is broken, paired with deep support for anti-establishment sentiment. On the other, both societies are engaged in fundamental debates about who truly belongs, who counts as a real American or Brazilian. In the United States, this question centers on immigration and the actions taken by the Trump administration. In Brazil, ideological leaning matters as a signal of belonging and is often used to define national identity. In their details, however, the two elections diverge in important ways. In the United States, the midterms are non-presidential elections that include, but are not limited to, the House of Representatives. They often function as a political weather vane and are historically unkind to the party in power. The Trump administration and Republicans face meaningful headwinds, as concerns about affordability and immigration policy have eroded perceptions of legitimacy. Will the American midterms serve as a check on Trump? We will see. But the odds are not in the Republicans’ favor. Brazil, by contrast, is heading into a presidential election that will pit President Lula of the Workers Party against one or more opposition candidates, including the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The Brazilian right has voiced strong critiques of what it sees as the unchecked power of the judiciary and the erosion of basic rights, particularly following the imprisonment of Bolsonaro senior. At its core, however, the Brazilian presidential election will hinge on the issues that most directly affect everyday life: crime, corruption, and the ability to make ends meet. The picture remains mixed. Lula enters the race as the incumbent with relatively strong approval ratings. Yet the issues most salient to Brazilian voters today, especially crime and corruption, favor the opposition. Ultimately, the outcome will turn on which side voters trust to restore order, fairness, and basic economic security in their daily lives.”
