Incumbent President Daniel Noboa won Ecuador’s presidential runoff election on Sunday, defeating leftist challenger Luisa González by an 11-point margin, according to the National Electoral Council. González, a former lawmaker, quickly challenged the outcome of the election, alleging irregularities. What ultimately decided the presidential race for Noboa? How might Noboa’s new, full term in office differ from his first partial term, particularly regarding issues such as security and migration, and what are the biggest challenges he faces? What does Noboa’s win mean for Ecuador’s economy and businesses?
Eileen Gavin, principal analyst for sustainable finance & Americas at Verisk Maplecroft: “Luisa González was considered a proxy for former President Rafael Correa, and despite support for Revolución Cuidadana’s more socially inclusive policies, a majority of voters cannot countenance Correísmo’s return to executive power. Splits in the left and limited support from Indigenous sectors put a ceiling on González’s support, as evidenced by her largely unchanged second-round tally. Noboa, whose margin over his rival went from fewer than 17,000 votes in the first round to more than 800,000 in the second, will now claim a clear mandate for his hardline security policies—as well as his diplomatic and economic pivot back toward the United States, Ecuador’s traditional trade and investment ally. Noboa’s liberal economic stance offers reassurance to investors concerned about default risk, with bonds exiting distressed territory on Monday. But Noboa’s liberal use of executive orders to bypass the National Assembly and the judiciary may raise governance concerns as he moves to tackle constitutional reform in his next term. Ecuador remains in a deep economic and security crisis, and Noboa’s radical plans to tackle terrorist-designated transnational gangs—including possible alliances with private security contractors—may result in more confrontations and associated economic difficulties in the near term. The United States may also become visibly involved, if—as Noboa wishes—Ecuador invites the U.S. military to re-open its previous Manta forward operating location. Notwithstanding investor relief at the election result, the prospect of any state-sanctioned private security apparatus operating alongside national military and police forces could weigh on corporate and investor risk moving forward.”
Laura Lizarazo, associate director for the Andean region at Control Risks: “Noboa’s victory is less a reflection of his government’s performance or campaign strategy than of widespread fear and rejection of a comeback for Correísmo, former President Rafael Correa’s political movement. Ecuadoreans voted primarily to block the left from returning to power, rather than to broadly endorse Noboa, whose increasingly authoritarian attitude raises concerns about the vulnerability of the checks-and-balances system and the rule of law in Ecuador. Unlike his first, atypical 18-month term, his second time in office will present some fresh challenges; he no longer has the clean slate of a newcomer to politics and must now present a clear government and development strategy. A lack of statecraft and political acumen are two of Noboa’s main weaknesses, and it is still unclear to what extent and how he will address these shortcomings in his second term. This is particularly relevant to security governance. Despite Noboa’s hardline stance on crime, significant challenges persist, including weak institutional capacity to prevent and prosecute criminal activity and the deep, pervasive infiltration of organized crime within state institutions. While militarization has produced limited results, Noboa is likely to double down on iron-fisted rhetoric and other highly popular security measures to curb violence, with highly uncertain success prospects. Regarding migration and given his clear intent to secure Washington’s goodwill, Noboa will likely continue supporting mass deportation efforts and, if desirable for Donald Trump’s administration, adopt new domestic policies to deter migrants from regions such as Asia and Africa from using Ecuador as a transit point to the United States. The business environment will benefit from Noboa’s strong pro-business attitude, which will seek to incentivize and protect foreign investments in key industries, including oil and gas and mining.”
Grace Jaramillo, professor at the University of British Columbia and Simon Fraser University: “Despite the too-close-to-call election anticipated by most electoral polls, a trifecta of different events contributed to President Noboa’s landslide victory. Significant among the three was a series of mistakes from the González campaign, which included questioning the future of a dollarized economy and announcing the creation of ‘peace brigades’ that immediately created associations to the feared ‘colectivos’ in Venezuela. Lastly, the threat of a bad relationship with a mercurial president of the United States that could trigger larger deportations of Ecuadoreans from the United States was not far from voters’ inner considerations. To sum up, it was a negative vote more than a full endorsement of President Noboa’s performance during his first half-term in office. This is an important consideration because the challenges he faces are significant. For one thing, he needs to tackle criminal violence still reigning high across the country, especially in the coastal region. And second, he needs to revitalize the economy fast and consistently for the majority of the population if he hopes to avoid soon facing diminishing support from the public. Above all, President Noboa needs to uphold the promise that he was the democratic option and respect the rule of law and freedom of speech—including criticism from lawful opposition and the public at large. His government has demonstrated little patience with the latter and, if anything, this is the first thing he needs to correct to guarantee not only peace, but a larger coalition to create better solutions to the critical issues Ecuadoreans are facing.”
Diego Andrés Almeida, managing partner at Almeida Guzmán & Asociados in Ecuador: “Noboa’s large margin of victory gives him legitimacy. After only a year and a half in office, he has consolidated his regime, despite facing adverse economic and environmental conditions in 2024. His triumph can not only be attributed to his handling of the campaign, but also to the poor judgment of those supporting González: support for a parallel currency, the Maduro regime and closeness to former President Rafael Correa. Noboa’s backing within the National Assembly will be a key factor in putting forward new policies to incentivize the economy and develop the mining and energy sectors. Private investments could also rise given the favorable circumstances, such as political stability and continuity of Noboa’s policies. His legitimacy will also allow him to develop ties with the international community and receive intelligence, security assistance and support to establish a new rule of law to defeat organized crime within Ecuador’s sovereign territory. Though independent, the judicial branch will have to align with the executive branch, as the results show an overwhelming endorsement of the fight against corruption cases stemming from the Correa regime. Noboa has hinted that he will call for a constitutional reform to reorganize the political and administrative structure of the state. The current constitution has proven to support a strong executive branch that leads to corruption, which was the base of Correa’s socialist government. This aside, Noboa’s main challenge will be the national fiscal deficit; he will have to negotiate with international lenders to cover the spread while ensuring fiscal sustainability.”
Hernán Flom, senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Trinity College: “The fact that Noboa won re-election by the margin he did is surprising, not just because the polls predicted a closer race and many had Luisa González on top, but also because of all the challenges he’s faced (and been unable to resolve) during his short tenure, from rampant criminal violence to an energy crisis. Evidently, this result shows that Ecuadoreans have more faith in him than in the hypothetical return to Correísmo embodied by González. Perhaps voters believed he will be better fit to handle relations with President Trump, especially in the areas of migration and tariffs. Given this large margin of victory, Noboa will probably feel emboldened to double down on his militarized strategy to combat organized crime and violence, which is worrisome given both its lack of sustained effectiveness and its growing human rights violations, including allegations of summary executions and forced disappearances. While this result clearly pleased the business community, as seen in the statements of some of its top representatives, its impact on the broader economy is harder to gauge. So long as Ecuador’s dual challenges of criminal violence and energy crisis remain, major investment is unlikely to flow, making it harder for the country to grow more consistently. Finally, Noboa’s renewed mandate comes with a heavy expectation that he will be able to turn things around. While Noboa’s previous term finished Guillermo Lasso’s mandate, and blame could be laid at Lasso’s feet, this time the responsibility will be perceived more squarely as Noboa’s.”
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