Honduran voters on March 9 selected candidates for the country’s three dominant political parties to replace outgoing President Xiomara Castro in the general elections in November. Incumbent Defense Minister Rixi Moncada won the leftist Libre Party’s nomination; Castro’s former vice president, Salvador Nasralla, won the centrist Liberal Party’s nomination, and former Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry Asfura won the right-wing National Party’s primary. What issues are likely to decide Honduras’ general election later this year? Which of the three leading candidates is best positioned ahead of the race? What’s at stake in this year’s election?
Enrique Rodríguez Burchard, managing partner at Aguilar Castillo Love in Honduras: “Honduras’ primary elections were marred by significant ballot distribution issues, leading to delays that stretched well past midnight. The problems prompted accusations from the opposition, who quickly placed the blame on the armed forces, despite the military’s previously spotless record in electoral processes. Salvador Nasralla, elected as the candidate for the centrist Liberal Party, enters the race for a third time, following his previous support for the Zelaya family. Many analysts view him as the leading candidate among undecided voters, who represent the largest voting bloc. Rixi Moncada, the heir to the Zelaya political dynasty, is the candidate for the leftist Libre Party, leveraging her position of power in a country where the use of state resources for electoral advantage is commonplace. Libre’s members are known for their disciplined loyalty, consistently supporting their candidates without hesitation. Nasry Asfura, the candidate for the right-wing National Party, is running for president for the second time, now firmly positioned as the party’s undisputed leader. Asfura, who received the most votes in the recent primaries, begins his campaign with a strong show of popular support. Beyond the persistent challenges of unemployment, violence, rule of law, impunity, health care and education, Honduras remains deeply polarized and disillusioned with both left- and right-wing politicians who have repeatedly failed to fulfill their promises, driving the nation into a state of unprecedented political and social confrontation. The critical challenge ahead lies in preserving the people’s faith in democracy and sustaining hope that they can overcome these obstacles within their own country, rather than seeking refuge in increasingly unwelcoming foreign lands.”
Emily Mendrala, senior advisor at Dinámica Americas and former deputy assistant to the president, senior advisor on migration and coordinator for the southwest border at the White House: “This could be an exciting year for Honduras. Elections can bring to the fore new visions, policy innovations, coalition building and—importantly—civic engagement. Latinobarómetro’s 2024 report measured gains in positive public perception of democracy in countries that conducted elections last year, including Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Mexico and Panama. I hope for the same for Honduras in 2025. An engaged citizenry can effect change. Hondurans care deeply about the economy, including job creation and growth, which is poverty-reducing. They care about safety and security; about government services, such as education and health; and they want a government that can effectively deliver those services and be good stewards of public resources. Hondurans, according to polling, want leaders that demonstrate integrity and honesty. The aforementioned Latinobarómetro public opinion poll showed that only 10 percent of Hondurans believe the Honduran economy is good, compared to 30 percent of Mexicans and 26 percent of Salvadorans. Only 36 percent of Hondurans believe democracy is preferable to other forms of government, compared to the Latin American average of 52 percent. This month’s primary contests in Honduras were marked by reporting delays, irregularities and public protests. Mismanagement risks eroding public trust. Public discontent demonstrates that Hondurans care deeply about their vote and want to make their voices heard, previewing—hopefully—enhanced civic education and civic engagement efforts in the lead-up to November’s elections. And it could be an interesting road to November; in Honduras’ multiparty system, alliances could alter the election landscape considerably.”
Lucas Perelló, assistant professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University: “The Honduran primaries were, frankly, a disaster. A communication breakdown between the National Electoral Council and the military led to massive delays in delivering election materials to voting centers in Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula—triggering election-day violence and accusations of fraud. As a run-up to the Nov. 30 general elections, the primaries cast serious doubts on whether authorities are prepared to hold another contest. Three issues rank at the top of voter concerns: the economy, crime and corruption. In 2021, Hondurans elected left-wing candidate Xiomara Castro to improve these key areas. Her government, however, has failed to deliver tangible improvements on any front. The contest remains locked in a three-way race between the incumbent party candidate, Rixi Moncada, and her conservative opponents, Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party and Nasry Asfura of the National Party. Honduras does not have a two-round system, and a simple majority is enough to win the presidency. The ruling party will spare no resources to shore up support in the months leading up to the election. The opposition parties could win if they backed a single candidate—but that seems unlikely at the moment. At stake is the future of the country in an increasingly uncertain world ushered in by the new Trump administration. Castro has few allies left in Washington after she championed dictatorships in Cuba and Venezuela. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio skipped Honduras on his recent trip to the region. Hondurans need leaders who can engage in constructive dialogue with the United States—the opposition offers a better chance.”
Valeria Vásquez, senior analyst at Control Risks: “The November election in Honduras will be marked by increasing levels of polarization and heightened tensions among the political class and the population. This will likely lead to increased friction, with parties rallying their support bases and amplifying rhetoric, fueling volatility in voter sentiment. The election will be shaped by key and longstanding issues, including high cost-of-living prices, insecurity and corruption in the highest levels of government. Distrust in the electoral system, primarily due to the technical and logistical shortcomings seen in the primaries, will also have a big impact on turnout and voter confidence. While the Libre Party will leverage the advantages of incumbency to gain popular support, it might not be enough. The bigger challenge and test for the party will be to distance itself from President Xiomara Castro’s unfulfilled promises and alleged ties to organized crime. Meanwhile, the opposition will try to capitalize on these issues and use the charismatic style of Asfura and Nasralla, but it will only lead to further polarization. The stakes in this year’s election are high, centered on the potential to change and transform long-standing issues that have marred the country for many years. However, regardless of who wins, prospects for substantial reforms remain slim.”
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