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The Dominican Republic’s president, Luis Abinader, on Sunday sailed to re-election, winning a second term in the country’s presidential contest without the need for a runoff. His main rivals, former President Leonel Fernández and Abel Martínez, a former legislator and mayor, conceded defeat. What are the main reasons behind Abinader’s popularity and electoral victory? What are the biggest challenges facing him and the country? What are the main policies he is expected to push in his second term?
Bernardo Vega, former ambassador of the Dominican Republic to the United States: “The victory of President Luis Abinader with 57 percent of the vote and a 30 percent margin over second-place finisher Leonel Fernández can be attributed mostly to the good economic performance during his term. He has a very good and coordinated economic team. He was also successful in getting the country moving after the Covid-19 pandemic. Just like Joaquín Balaguer, he used the Haitian issue and the big crisis in that country as a way to get votes. Fernández is very unpopular because of high levels of corruption during his three terms in office. The opposition had divided into two parties, the FP and the PLD. Danilo Medina, the head of the PLD, has the liability that three of his most popular cabinet members have been accused of corruption and are presently in the courts. With a big majority in Congress, 28 of 32 senators, President Abinader faces the need for tax and police reforms and a modernized penal code. He also needs to reduce the enormous deficit of the three-government owned electric companies, either by privatizing them, renting them or taking politics out of its administration. He is also likely to be involved in international issues as he wants to be seen as an actor in international affairs.”
Luis Fortuño, former governor of Puerto Rico and international observer of the Dominican Republic’s election: “During the past few days, what I gathered is that President Abinader is perceived as having handled the transition from the pandemic to normalcy professionally and with dexterity. People seem to be satisfied with the economic situation in general terms. Additionally, he seems to be approachable and accessible to the voters. After receiving such a strong mandate, the strengthening and institutionalization of the Dominican Republic’s democracy is probably his greatest challenge. He is also likely to want to continue the modernization of the nation’s economy and infrastructure. He will probably continue to address the modernization of the Dominican Republic’s infrastructure, with emphasis in the energy and transportation sectors. The utilization of the public-private partnership model may frequently be used for this purpose. Another area that may consume his energies is the manufacturing sector. The U.S. policy of nearshoring an important portion of the manufacturing being done in the Asia-Pacific region presents an opportunity for President Abinader that he is likely to pursue.»
Rosario Espinal, professor emeritus of sociology at Temple University: “While many are tempted to see novelties in Sunday’s election, the pattern was well-set. Dominicans tend to re-elect their presidents unless a major crisis ensues. Leonel Fernández was elected in 2004 and re-elected in 2008, and Danilo Medina was elected in 2012 and re-elected in 2016. Luis Abinader was elected in 2020 and has now been re-elected. The runoff was introduced in the Dominican constitution in 1994 but only happened in 1996. Runoffs rarely happen because Dominicans tend to concentrate their vote on the most-likely winner. In addition, the Dominican political system has been operating this century with one dominant party due to divisions of the Social Christian Reformist Party (PRSC), the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD) and the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). From 2004 to 2020, the dominant party was the PLD, now the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) that emerged out of division in the PRD. Abinader’s votes are also in line with recent precedent: Fernández was elected with 57.1 percent of the vote and re-elected with 53.8 percent, Medina was elected with 51.2 percent and re-elected with 61.4 percent, and Abinader was elected with 52.5 percent and re-elected with 57.5 percent. High abstention in 2020 and 2024 (around 45 percent) is new. During his second term, Abinader is likely to push for constitutional reform, even though the most needed reforms are socioeconomic.”
Mary Fernández Rodríguez, founding partner at Headrick Rizik Álvarez & Fernández in Santo Domingo: “In the election, there was a good turnout of more than 60 percent of the population. President Abinader’s landslide victory could be attributed to three main reasons. First, corruption of past administrations remains fresh in voters’ memories, and prosecution of high-profile members of past administrations is underway. Second, the opposition was divided into two parties, both of whose governments were significantly plagued by corruption. Third, President Abinader’s government must be recognized as an undeniably effective one as he successfully led the country out of different crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic. Abinader’s main challenge for his second term is to avoid corruption, which is very common in second terms, especially when the incumbent president is not up for re-election. Abinader’s second challenge will be to avoid the temptation to modify the constitution to allow him to attempt a third term. Another challenge is to continue to promote human rights while at the same time protect the Dominican Republic from adverse effects spilling over into our country due to the unstable situation in Haiti. The main policies that the government should pursue in this second term are promoting a comprehensive fiscal and tax reform in order to enable the country to manage its public debt and also promote economic growth. Abinader has also promised to promote a constitutional amendment that would guarantee the need for a qualified majority in Congress to solidify the two-term limit for future presidents. Additionally, very important for the country’s institutionality is to enshrine in the constitution the independence of the attorney general, who is now designated by the president.”
G. Philip Hughes, senior vice president of the Council of American Ambassadors and member of the Caribbean Policy Consortium: “President Luis Abinader’s re-election victory on Sunday was no surprise, given his commanding lead in the pre-election polls. The Dominican Republic’s strong record of economic growth and the Abinader administration’s competent management of the Covid-19 pandemic, its rapid economic recovery afterward, its strides against corruption and its domestically popular hard line against illegal Haitian immigration undergird his election by a roughly 60 percent outright majority, obviating the need for a second-round runoff. A key factor for Abinader’s second term will be the precise strength of his PRM party’s majorities in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, determining whether he will command the two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution, for example, to make permanent the limit of two presidential terms. In his second term, Abinader can be expected to continue his tough line on illegal immigration from Haiti, completing the border wall under construction and pursuing all the more vigorously his ‘Mi Pais Seguro’ public safety plan, as well as his internationally awarded anti-corruption initiatives. Since the gang violence now gripping Port-au-Prince may spread elsewhere in currently ungoverned Haiti, these initiatives will prove all the more timely. Abinader’s government will be challenged to deflect international pressure against his firm stance on illegal immigration from Haiti, with its deportation sweeps, that could damage the Dominican Republic’s tourism sector, while the country’s opposition parties will be challenged to get their collective act together and find traction to ensure that the Dominican Republic’s vibrant democracy remains authentically competitive.”
Beatrice Rangel, member of the Advisor board and director of AMLA Consulting in Miami Beach: “For more than 50 years, the Dominican Republic has steadily built the foundations of an efficient service-based economy and a democracy sustained by the increasing participation of civil society. In short, the country has built a republic. President Abinader’s re-election adds new dimensions to democratic progress as a generational shift has taken place, opening the doors to fresh leadership. The country’s leaders have a global vision as they attended leading universities in the United States and Europe. Most have worked either in top U.S. banks and corporations or have made stints at research institutions and think tanks in the leading world economies. They know how to bring to their country links of the global value chain. Thus, the Dominican Republic is poised to emulate, in development terms, places like Taiwan, South Korea and other Asian tigers that have successfully combined democracy and development.”
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