Uruguay’s Interior Ministry reported on July 20 that 195 homicides were recorded in the first half of 2026, up 6.6 percent from the same period a year earlier. The figures came days after a Factum survey found that more than half of Uruguayans consider crime, violence and drug trafficking to be the country’s most pressing problems. What factors are driving Uruguay’s security challenges? How well is the government responding to them? How significant a political issue has public security become in Uruguay, and what has its rise as the country’s dominant public concern meant for President Yamandú Orsi’s government, the opposition and the country’s broader policymaking and electoral debate?
Ignacio Munyo, professor of economics at the University of Montevideo: “Uruguay’s security problem is increasingly driven by the expansion of drug trafficking and its interaction with a deeply overcrowded prison system. The country has become a transit and storage point for cocaine trafficked by international criminal organizations, while local drug markets have fueled territorial disputes, firearms use and increasingly lethal violence. Prisons, rather than rehabilitating offenders, have become important centers for recruitment and criminal operations. These challenges are compounded by the limited resources allocated to the security and criminal justice system. Police forces, prosecutors, courts, prisons and rehabilitation services face growing demands without a corresponding increase in their institutional, technological and human capabilities. Uruguay cannot expect substantially better results while maintaining an underfunded system that is already operating under severe pressure. The government has produced a serious national public security plan. It is evidence-based, has international support and incorporates policies promoted by main stakeholders. The central concern is its capacity to implement it. Effective execution requires stronger political leadership, better coordination across institutions and a clear commitment to providing the needed resources. Public security has become Uruguay’s dominant political concern, placing pressure on the current administration. The increase in homicides reinforces the perception that gradual responses are no longer enough. For the government, security will be a decisive test of credibility. For the opposition, it presents a political opportunity, but also a responsibility. Uruguay must treat security as a long-term state policy, backed by adequate funding and a realistic recognition of the state’s limitations. In areas where public institutions lack the necessary capacity, private participation should be considered under clear rules and effective public oversight. Security cannot become merely another arena for short-term electoral confrontation.”
Inés Fynn, assistant professor at the Catholic University of Uruguay: “Uruguay’s security challenge is no longer a temporary spike in crime, but rather a structural problem that has persisted across successive governments. Rising homicides reflect the growing importance of local illicit markets and increasingly violent competition over their control, particularly in peripheral urban neighborhoods. Local criminal groups have expanded, but their influence remains centered on illicit markets, with only limited spillovers into broader social and political life. Therefore, Uruguay still has a window of opportunity to prevent more expansive forms of criminal governance from taking root. The challenge is not simply to expand state presence or increase policing. In many of the neighborhoods most affected by violence, the state is already present through schools, health services, social programs and the police. The priority is to improve coordination across these institutions while maintaining and, where necessary, rebuilding state legitimacy. Residents must continue to see public institutions, rather than criminal actors, as the legitimate authority for resolving everyday problems. Public security has become Uruguay’s defining political issue and is likely to remain central in the next electoral cycle. For President Orsi, reducing violence is a political necessity. Yet homicide trends should be interpreted with caution. High levels of violence often reflect competition among criminal groups, while declining violence may indicate that criminal markets have become more stable, relying less on open confrontation and more on tacit agreements, fear and community silence. Uruguay’s long-term challenge therefore extends beyond reducing homicide rates. It is to prevent criminal organizations from extending their influence beyond illicit markets while preserving the legitimacy of state institutions in the communities where they operate.”
Debbie Sharnak, associate professor at the Hollybush Institute for Global Peace and Security at Rowan University: “Ever since Uruguay’s homicide rates peaked in 2018, crime has been a major concern. Indeed, when Yamandú Orsi was elected in November 2024, public security was voters’ top issue. While his opponent, Álvaro Delgado, favored a ‘tough on crime’ approach via enforcement, harsher sentences and maximum-security prisons, Orsi campaigned on community policing, addressing crime’s root social causes and targeting money laundering operations. Voters chose Orsi and his approach while concurrently rejecting a referendum to permit nighttime police raids, demonstrating a willingness to give Orsi’s holistic, long-term approach a chance. Since taking office, Orsi has pursued a multifaceted strategy. His administration filled vacant police roles and began constructing new maximum-security facilities to isolate gang leaders. Simultaneously, he introduced a 10-year security plan that prioritizes community policing and smaller penitentiaries to focus on rehabilitation, reducing recidivism, and alleviating overcrowding. To disrupt drug trafficking, he expanded law enforcement’s authority to infiltrate financial networks and empower anti-money laundering institutions. Together, these measures reveal Orsi’s belief that resolving these issues needs large-scale institutional and societal change, rather than just punitive and reactionary measures. While the homicide rate and other crimes showed positive improvement in 2025, the numbers from the first half of this year align Uruguay more closely with the previous three years and are still worse than many countries in Latin America. With no presidential election until 2029, Orsi has time to test his long-term strategy. However, if it fails to yield results, voters could shift back toward the opposition National Party’s more aggressive measures.”
Nicolás Saldías, principal economist for the Americas at The Economist Intelligence Unit: “On July 20, Uruguay’s attorney general, Mónica Ferrero, warned the General Assembly that prosecutors are under threat from organized crime. She said that four prosecutors have been threatened, adding that organized crime ‘permeates everything’ and ‘has no limits.’ She knows the threat firsthand: She survived a murder attempt in September 2025. Four days after her testimony, a 12-year-old was gunned down in Montevideo’s swanky Parque Rodó area. More broadly, 57 percent of those killed had criminal convictions, and 75 percent were killed by firearms in the first half of the year. The fact that so many victims were incarcerated—Uruguay has one of the world’s highest incarceration rates—demonstrates the challenge of combating gangs when prisons are hotbeds of recruitment. The Global Organized Crime Index shows Uruguay slipping down the regional and global rankings between 2021 and 2025. These developments demonstrate the challenge policymakers face as demands for action increase. The government’s national security plan increases policing and the use of technology and devotes resources to combat crime through social policy. But these measures take time to bear fruit, and patience is thin. As a result, the government decided to use the army’s armored vehicles to patrol high-risk neighborhoods. The decision was controversial; the left criticized it as resembling the dictatorship era, while the right-wing opposition says it is security theater. Crime will be the central issue for many voters in the 2029 general election. Failure to adequately tackle the problem may open the door for an outsider who could shake up Uruguay’s party system.”
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