Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s approval rating has risen to 43 percent, as compared to 40 percent in May, according to a national survey released on July 16 by pollster Quaest. The increase came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to impose 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports starting Aug. 1, citing former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing trial for his alleged involvement in a plot to overturn the results of Brazil’s 2022 presidential election. What does Lula’s rising approval rating mean for Brazilian politics in the context of next year’s general elections? To what extent do U.S. tariffs pose a threat to Brazil’s economy? What is the state of U.S.-Brazil diplomatic relations under Trump and Lula?
Marina Pera, analyst at Control Risks: “Even though Trump justified the tariffs by claiming that Lula and the Supreme Court are undertaking a ‘witch hunt’ against former President Jair Bolsonaro, there might be other grievances driving the threats. Brazil was not (at least not publicly) on Trump’s radar until the BRICS summit opened in Rio de Janeiro on July 6. On this occasion, Lula criticized U.S. protectionism and advocated the use of local currencies (instead of the U.S. dollar) for trade between BRICS members. The Trump administration, therefore, perceived Lula as using the BRICS as a platform to promote broader realignment with the Global South. Moreover, Lula has been deepening economic ties with China over the past few months. In May, for example, Lula and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed more than 30 agreements enabling Chinese investment in mining, transport infrastructure, ports and artificial intelligence industries. Given that economic integration between Brazil and the United States is low and that the countries have limited security cooperation, Lula has more room to defy Trump. Also, the Supreme Court is an independent branch of government, and Lula cannot interfere in the Bolsonaro trial, reducing negotiation prospects on that front. This ultimately empowers Lula ahead of the 2026 presidential election, as it gives him a fresh political narrative. The U.S.-Brazil tensions will not be decisive for the election, but they can give the Brazilian president an opportunity to assert strength and improve his standing in the polls.”
Karina Stange Calandrin, post-doctoral fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the University of São Paulo and professor of international relations at the University of Sorocaba and Ibmec-SP: “The rise in President Lula’s approval rating reflects a momentary convergence between domestic issues and international events. President Trump’s announcement of U.S. tariffs, formulated in explicitly political terms and linked to Bolsonaro’s trial, was perceived by many Brazilians not as a criticism of Brazil, but rather as an external threat to national interests. Lula’s firm response allowed him to assume a statesmanlike posture, mobilizing support beyond his base and reaffirming his international credentials. In this sense, the increase in approval is less linked to concrete changes in domestic policy and more to Lula’s symbolic role as Brazil’s global defender. Thinking ahead to the 2026 elections, this dynamic suggests that Lula and his allies could benefit from framing external tensions within a broader narrative of national sovereignty and dignity, especially if Trump’s rhetoric intensifies. However, maintaining this growth in popularity will depend on Lula’s ability to turn symbolic victories into concrete economic results. As for the tariffs, they represent a serious, though not catastrophic, threat to the Brazilian economy. The sectors affected, especially steel and aluminum, are regionally concentrated and politically sensitive. Retaliatory measures or the diversification of trade partners can mitigate the effects, but the diplomatic cost is high. Ideological differences and conflicting worldviews mark the diplomatic relations between the United States and Brazil under Lula and Trump. While Lula advocates multipolar engagement and institutional diplomacy, Trump adopts unilateralism and a transactional foreign policy. This creates a relationship marked more by friction than cooperation, and which could further destabilize hemispheric ties if not carefully managed.”
Peter Sufrin, independent Washington-based analyst: “Trump’s 50 percent tariffs may very well signify a paradigm shift in what has been a fruitful diplomatic relationship between Brazil and the United States for decades. According to a recent Brazilian Report account from July 17, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira, and Brazilian lower house and Senate leaders did not mince words, condemning the acts as nothing less than outright ‘American aggression.’ Curiously, U.S.-Brazil tensions have provided Lula with a much-needed shot in the arm. As events unfold on a daily and weekly basis, predicting the impact on next year’s general election remains dicey, but in a recent Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce webinar, Christopher Garman of the Eurasia Group foresees a fissure on Brazil’s political right if Bolsonaro’s aim for an amnesty law conflicts with São Paulo Governor Freitas’ interests in his home state’s industrial constituency, thereby strengthening Lula’s candidacy. Certainly, the draconian tariff measures have served to both antagonize and unite Brazil’s government and populace. What remains to be seen is the fate of a solid U.S.-Brazil relationship that has endured for decades, on collaboration in trade, infrastructure, aviation and energy, to name a few. There may also be a significant Brazilian pivot to China. This dichotomy between upper echelon power politics and fundamental economic relations reveals a basic challenge for Brazil and the United States: the substance of diplomatic work. The hope, then, is the maintenance of comity, the perpetuation of a well-rooted political and economic relationship that has existed since the United States recognized Brazil in 1824.”
Jacqueline Pitanguy, executive director of Citizenship, Study, Research, Information and Action (CEPIA) in Brazil and a member of the Inter-American Dialogue: “The rise of Lula’s approval has, as an immediate cause, the 50 percent tariffs on Brazil’s exports to the United States. But, as background, 86 percent of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Jan. 8, 2023 attack on Brasília, according to a Genial/Quaest survey last January. This attack by a multitude of Bolsonaro’s followers on Congress, the presidential palace and the Supreme Court was the culmination of an alleged coup d’état for which Bolsonaro and many of his allies are now on trial. Lula’s rise in popularity comes as Brazil grapples with the fallout from the move by Trump, who explicitly cited Bolsonaro’s ongoing trial for his alleged involvement in a plot to undermine democracy. Lula’s rising popularity is anchored on rejection of the attempted coup, plus the defense of the country’s sovereignty against external pressure. The tariffs and their explicit relationship to Bolsonaro’s trial appear to have rallied public support behind Lula. This could reinvigorate his re-election bid, positioning him as a unifying figure amid perceived foreign aggression. It is a unique case of tariffs applied to a political issue, and they pose a tangible threat to the Brazilian economy. With the United States as a major trading partner, particularly in agriculture, steel and some manufacturing sectors, depending on their ability to reach other markets, a 50 percent tariff could severely affect export revenues and potentially stifle economic growth. While Brazil has vowed to retaliate using its Reciprocity Law, the priority is to negotiate and eventually appeal to the WTO. The immediate disruption to supply chains and market uncertainty is a cause for concern. Diplomatic relations between Trump and Lula are, predictably, fraught. Trump’s direct intervention in Brazil’s internal judicial affairs has been met with strong condemnation from Lula, from the legislative branch and from the population at large. Lula has rejected what he has called ‘unacceptable blackmail’ and has defended Brazil’s independent judiciary. While Lula has expressed willingness to engage in dialogue, the current climate is one of tension and firm resolve from Brazil to defend its sovereignty.”
Izabela Rodrigues, graduate fellow for Brazil and the Southern Cone at McLarty Associates: “Lula’s approval rating rose following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Brazilian imports and points to the continued relevance of national sovereignty in Brazil. Although the rise may seem surprising amid Brazil’s political polarization, it reflects a deeply rooted sentiment: external interference in domestic affairs is widely rejected across the country. Economically, it is believed that the overall impact of the tariffs may not be as severe as it seems, especially in the medium to long term. While it’s clear the tariffs pose challenges, Brazil is committed to negotiating and finding solutions for the most affected sectors, such as steel and aluminum. Tensions are expected to define the Trump-Lula relationship, with trade disputes at the center. Former President Jair Bolsonaro’s ongoing legal troubles and the lobbying by his son Eduardo Bolsonaro in the United States against the Brazilian Supreme Court’s investigation add to this strain. Brazil must rely on its well-prepared diplomatic corps and experienced trade negotiators, avoiding politically motivated threats that lack sound economic justification. Brazil’s government will try to negotiate the tariffs, but the issue involving the judiciary has already proven to be non-negotiable. Lula’s firm response potentially boosts his standing ahead of next year’s general elections. Even critics of his administration support his refusal to bow to external pressure and back his clear prioritization of Brazil’s interests. When Trump linked the tariffs to Bolsonaro’s ongoing trial, it caused friction within Bolsonaro’s own base. Although Bolsonaro’s slogan champions national interest, Lula’s response to the tariffs was widely seen as a moment of strong leadership in defense of Brazil.”
Guilherme Casarões, assistant professor at the São Paulo School of Business Administration of the Fundação Getulio Vargas: “Over the last two weeks, Donald Trump has waged a multi-front attack on Brazil. Besides imposing massive tariffs on Brazilian exports, the Trump administration has initiated Section 301 investigations into a wide range of Brazil’s trade practices and also announced visa restrictions on Brazilian judicial officials. In 200 years of bilateral relations, never before has the United States been so hostile to Brazil, a historical ally. What drives such hostility is not trade deficits or major geopolitical concerns, but rather Trump’s desire to meddle with Brazil’s democracy on ideological grounds. Trump has explicitly stated that he wants to revert decisions made by the Brazilian Supreme Court, which is about to throw former President Jair Bolsonaro behind bars and has ordered the regulation of U.S. social media platforms in Brazil. Trump’s offensive against Brazil follows several months of pro-Bolsonaro lobbying at the White House and the U.S. Congress, spearheaded by Brazilian Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son. The strategy, however, seems to have backfired. Recent polls have shown that most Brazilians oppose Trump’s measures. Relevant associations of agribusiness, industry and trade sectors have openly condemned the tariffs. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration has successfully promoted the idea that the Bolsonaros are trying to save their own skin by putting Brazil’s economy, democracy and sovereignty at risk. Trump’s aggression might have been a temporary blessing for Lula. But with elections one year away, Lula will have to showcase his political skills to hold the economy together and de-escalate relations with the United States in the coming months.”
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