A number of high-ranking members of the administration of Colombian President Gustavo Petro have resigned in recent weeks, including the ministers of defense, interior, labor and environment, after Petro appointed an unpopular staffer and broadcast a contentious cabinet meeting on national television. The changes come as Colombia’s government is managing escalating paramilitary violence in the northeastern Catatumbo region, as well as ongoing discussions with the United States regarding trade and migration. What’s behind the wave of resignations engulfing the Petro administration? How have the resignations—particularly that of Defense Minister Iván Velásquez—affected the government’s handling of concerns like National Liberation Army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional, ELN) violence in Catatumbo? How does the shake-up affect Colombia’s geopolitical standing?
Jennapher Lunde Seefeldt, associate professor of government and international affairs at Augustana University: “Within the executive and legislative branches, those around Petro are losing faith in the administration’s ability to navigate continuing economic concerns and escalating violence in the northeast. As public approval ratings fall, Petro has increasingly wielded executive powers and provoked the unraveling of his coalition. Publicly lambasting his ministers and appointing Armando Benedetti as chief of staff has soured relationships throughout his government. Benedetti is embroiled in political, corruption and personal scandals, and he seeks to assert his high-ranking yet unelected position due to his influential campaigning for Petro in 2022. Benedetti’s inclusion risks alienating Petro’s supporters and may prove fatal to the president’s ambition for a left-wing alliance in 2026. Petro must also manage migration surges due to increased crime and drug trafficking activity in Colombia and Venezuela. The ELN is notoriously recalcitrant, and the group’s structure allows for significant branch autonomy. Mostly unchecked in the northeast, the ELN seeks dominance over rival groups and local governments. Now-former Defense Minister Velásquez targeted embedded corruption between the armed groups and government officials—his removal will likely allow for continued corruption and hinder peace negotiation efforts. Petro stands to lose civilian, government and international support and legitimacy if he cannot provide a stable bureaucracy to address the cascading deficit concerns, decreasing international investment, failing public services and security issues. Declining political support after the failure of certain policy agenda items prompted Petro to reorient his administration, but the upheavals and consequent lack of trust between Petro and his coalition will likely shutter legislative avenues for solving these problems.”
Johanna Amaya-Panche, postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Edinburgh, and Malte Jauch, lecturer at the University of Essex: “The recent wave of resignations comes at a time where large numbers of civilians in the regions of Catatumbo, Chocó and Cauca are exposed to escalating violence inflicted by emboldened violent groups. This surge of violence marks a collapse of the ‘total peace’ model and has caused a humanitarian crisis that calls for an urgent and careful coordinated response. The resignations of several ministers pose an obstacle to such a coordinated response. In particular, the loss of experienced ministers, such as Iván Velásquez, will add to the difficulty in containing the upsurge in violence. The collapse of the cabinet and the associated difficulties in responding to escalating violence were avoidable. The resignations are the product of mounting frustration with President Gustavo Petro’s populist authoritarian leadership style and his refusal to abandon controversial decisions. A point in this case is Petro’s decision to appoint Armando Benedetti, who is accused of corruption and violence against women, as chief of staff. This decision stands in stark contrast with the government’s ambitious progressive agenda, which includes a commitment to tackling corruption, conflict and gender injustice, among other things. Will Petro form a new cabinet that remains committed to the progressive values that enabled the electoral success of the governing parties? Or will the government descend into increasingly populist and authoritarian tactics, similar to those of Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador? While the verdict is still out on this question, the stakes could hardly be higher.”
María Teresa Aya, international analyst based in Bogotá: “Petro’s latest cabinet crisis comes after the resignation of three key ministers that had accompanied him throughout his term: defense, environment and labor. They were his defenders, and they resigned. Two of them, labor and environment, resigned due to the appointment of a special advisor accused of violence toward women. Also, in the case of the minister of environment, she argued that the current government had lost its purpose. In the case of Defense Minister Iván Velásquez, his resignation came at a time when Colombia is reliving violence not seen in years, especially in Catatumbo with the ELN—a crisis that has created the largest internal displacement in decades. The defense minister, critical of the negotiations with the ELN, disagreed with the way the president managed his most recent cabinet meeting, broadcasting it live. He deemed it an unnecessary political show. Velásquez’s departure puts light on an institutional crisis, in addition to the security crisis. There is a lack of consensus as to what this government’s political objective is; it’s unclear what exactly is the goal of the recent changes. Colombia seems to be engulfed in political uncertainty that affects the country internally and in its foreign affairs, especially with the United States. Always a U.S. ally, the new defense minister must consider recent regional geopolitical changes, work hand-in-hand with the new minister of foreign affairs—leading the way, if possible—and tread with caution on matters such as relations with China, Venezuela and rising political extremism in the global south.”
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