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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced July 1 that he will resume talks with the United States. The announcement came just weeks before the country’s July 28 election, in which Maduro is seeking another term. The Biden administration, which said it was open to such talks, reimposed some economic sanctions on Venezuela earlier this year, saying Maduro had failed to uphold an agreement on free and fair elections when the opposition’s favorite candidate, María Corina Machado, was barred from running. What are the main motivations on both sides to engage in talks? What are the talks likely to accomplish, and how likely is the United States to ease sanctions? How might talks between the two countries affect Venezuela’s upcoming election?
Tamara Taraciuk Broner, director of the Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program at the Inter-American Dialogue: “At this point, elections in Venezuela will not be free nor fair. Yet, despite the government’s ongoing attempts to tilt the playing field, the Venezuelan people are eager to vote, overwhelmingly, for change. Venezuelan authorities know this and will keep trying to narrow the opposition’s margin, likely to make it easier to announce results favoring the government that would differ from what reliable polls indicate will happen on July 28. In this context, talks between Venezuela and the United States—or anyone else—will not focus on significantly changing electoral conditions at this point, but rather on keeping a communications channel open for what will happen during and after election day. For the U.S. government, this should include being able to reach out to Venezuelan authorities if there is an attempt to steal the election or if an institutional crisis leads to violence and repression. For the Maduro government, it is a way of demonstrating that it represents legitimate authorities who have a direct channel with the United States, instead of negotiating with the united opposition. Keeping this door open is essential because July 28 is not the end of the road, but rather a key political moment that could be the starting point for Venezuela’s future. If the United States wants to play an important role, it should today send unequivocal messages that going further down the repressive path will have high costs for Venezuela. Yet, simultaneously, it needs to prepare for a negotiation that provides incentives to key people in power in Venezuela who are willing to pave the way for a transition to democracy after the elections.”
Michael Shifter, senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue: “For both the United States and Venezuelan governments, it makes sense to keep a channel of communication open. As the crucial July 28 election nears, bilateral talks can be useful in seeking to shape the conditions for an eventual stable, peaceful and democratic transition in that crisis-ridden country. The talks are unlikely to have much impact in the short term. The vote will be neither free nor fair. The authoritarian regime will need to resort to massive and blatant fraud to perpetuate itself in power. No serious person doubts that the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, backed by Venezuela’s most popular political figure, María Corina Machado, enjoys broad and enthusiastic support, whereas Nicolás Maduro is immensely unpopular. After a quarter century of Chavismo’s ruinous rule, the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans are clamoring for fundamental change. The key question is what happens after July 28. Should the fraud scenario materialize, with the opposition rightly claiming victory and popular legitimacy despite what the National Electoral Council declares, a political crisis could well ensue. One possibility is that the regime intensifies its already harsh repression of the opposition. There is, however, a far more hopeful prospect. The massive fraud could generate considerable pressure, both within Venezuela (particularly Chavismo) and among regional and international actors, for a serious political negotiation between the regime and opposition. In either case, the role of the United States will be crucial. Washington needs to do what it can to protect human rights in Venezuela and, under a more promising scenario, support efforts to pursue democratic reforms and effective governance.”
Marc Becker, professor of history at Truman State University: “It would help to put the upcoming Venezuelan election in a bit of a historical and political context. First, remember that the U.S. State Department similarly led a full-court press against the Nicaraguan election of 1990 declaring in advance that no way, no how would they accept the outcome of such a rigged electoral system—until Violeta Barrios de Chamorro unexpectedly won, and then it suddenly became the most free and fair election ever in Nicaraguan history that reflected the democratic will of the Nicaraguan people. Also remember that the leftist Sandinistas—unlike, say, Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro—recognized and accepted their defeat. Everyone knew that María Corina Machado was never going to be a candidate due to judicial rulings barring her from being a candidate because of her calls to overthrow the Venezuelan government. Trump, of course, engaged in similar conduct, and the only reason he is on the ballot this fall is because he packed the judiciary before leaving office. At the same time, the Green Party faces insurmountable barriers to ballot access, and its presidential candidate Jill Stein was imprisoned in St. Louis earlier this year. And speaking of political prisoners, may I point out that once again the American Indian Movement (AIM) activist Leonard Peltier has been denied parole and will probably die in jail? What we have learned from election deniers—both those in Venezuela and those in the United States—are that the only free and fair elections are those that we win; all others are fraudulent.”
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