Latin Americans still like and admire President Obama, yet they no longer expect much from him. He mostly ignored the region in his first term, and never mentioned it during his re-election campaign. Sure, immigration reform is on his agenda, but only because both Republicans and Democrats are now intimidated by Latino political clout. It may be that Latin America requires only sporadic attention – like when an earthquake devastates Haiti, or a political crisis undoes Honduras or Paraguay, or an economy collapses somewhere.
But at least two of the region’s 33 countries demand a more strategic approach.
Together, Mexico and Brazil produce nearly 65 per cent of Latin America’s output, and some experts predict they will emerge as the world’s fourth and fifth largest economies within a generation or so (trailing only the US, China, and India).
Mexico is the top priority. Already the US’s second largest trade partner, just ahead of China, Mexico is on track to surpass number one Canada soon.
US-Mexico commerce exceeded $500bn in 2012 and accounts for two-thirds of US trade with all of Latin America. Demography is just as important. Some 10 per cent of US residents and six of ten Latinos claim Mexican origins. Year after year, nearly half of US immigrants come from Mexico.
Mexico’s economy has been remarkably vigorous over the past three years – and the future may even be brighter. New president Enrique Peña Nieto, inaugurated on December 1, is committed to a far-reaching program of economic reform, including the opening of Mexico’s vital but languishing oil sector to private participation. More sensible US immigration laws coupled with Mexican energy and economic reforms would set the stage for a renewed bilateral relationship with the potential for accelerating growth and creating thousands of new jobs in both nations.
The complete article is available via Financial Times.