On January 3, president and CEO of the Inter-American Dialogue, Rebecca Bill Chavez, spoke with BBC News to discuss the U.S. detention of Maduro in a military operation in Caracas and Trump’s statement that the U.S. will “govern” Venezuela until there is a transition.
COMMENTS FROM CHAVEZ:
“The removal of Maduro is the relatively easy part. What comes next is the real challenge. Venezuela is a vast country with mountainous terrain. There are large, ungoverned swaths of territory, and multiple competing armed groups that have a vested interest in maintaining the situation that existed under Maduro.”
“You have the Colombian ELN guerrilla movement, dissident members of the FARC, and very powerful transnational criminal organizations engaged in illegal mining and other illicit activities. The idea that the United States could come in and govern in this scenario is extremely concerning, particularly without a concrete plan, which we have not heard.”
“When the U.S. sought political change in 2019, there was a belief that we would see high-level military defections. That never happened. The Venezuelan military has been incredibly loyal to Maduro for two main reasons.”
“First, the use of carrots. The military has benefited enormously economically from the Maduro regime. Second, the use of sticks. Maduro has ensured loyalty, in part through Cuban intelligence officers operating in Venezuela, to prevent defections. As a result, we see a large number of Venezuelan military personnel in prison. So it is not at all clear that defections will occur on the scale the U.S. might hope for.”
“From what we know, this was a strike within Caracas. There has been emphasis on the absence of U.S. casualties. I would highlight concerns about the idea of a ‘second wave.’ To me, that suggests U.S. boots on the ground—a significant ground incursion—which would be very different from a precision strike. That could lead to prolonged violence, essentially a quagmire, with U.S. troops deployed in Venezuela for an extended period.”
“This is particularly striking given that the recently released national security strategy emphasizes avoiding what have been called ‘forever wars.'”
