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Five years have passed since the eruption of social protests in April 2018. It was a civic expression that sought the end of the dictatorship, the return of democracy and justice, and was crushed by the upsurge of repression from the Daniel Ortega regime.
The continuity of authoritarianism is the dominant trend in the country and no options for change in the short-term are foreseen. The predominant forces that can alter the balance of power and lay the path toward an electoral democratic transition, in 2023 or in 2026, are scattered, repressed in a police state, and lack a coordinated strategy of resistance and political action.
Despite receiving a minority of political support, the balance of power is in favor of the regime who dominates the repressive apparatus and possesses economic resources to maintain control and seek a dynastic succession. The magnitude of repression, as well as the noise of various international conflicts, render international mobilization difficult. However, the international community must confer greater importance to the Nicaraguan crisis in the global agenda.
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