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Hugo Chavez, stricken with cancer, is no longer the strongman that he has pretended to be during his more than 12-year rule as Venezuela’s president.   Whether or not he fully recovers and returns to take charge of his country, Chavez has been weakened, both physically and politically.  His human frailties have been exposed.

The current circumstances have caught everyone – supporters and opponents alike — by surprise.  For years, there has been a lot of speculation about a variety of possible scenarios in Venezuela, but no one considered this one.

Though it is hard to predict what will happen now, what is certain is that Venezuela has profound problems.  It is economically troubled, deeply polarized, and lacking in institutions.   One-man rule for a dozen years has taken a tremendous toll in a country that, though very flawed before Chavez came to power in 1999, nonetheless once showed some respect for institutions.

Chavez says he intends to make decisions from Havana, while he receives treatment and recovers.  He has refused to transfer authority to vice president Elias Jaua.  This arrangement could work, but only for a limited time.  The six-month period mentioned in the constitution is a long stretch for a president to be away from a country that desperately needs to be governed.

That there is no obvious successor to Chavez is another measure of the extent of his one-man rule and his insistence that he not be overshadowed by anyone.   Given the void, it is reasonable to anticipate a power struggle within Chavismo, which will have a hard time surviving without Chavez as the leader.

Even if he is the candidate in the presidential election scheduled for December 2012, Chavez will be at a disadvantage, not only because of a debilitating illness and splits within Chavismo, but, most importantly, a deteriorating security and economic situation in Venezuela.

In this new context, the political opposition in Venezuela is encouraged and senses an opportunity to defeat Chavez – or another candidate from his movement — at the polls.  The opposition will, however, be severely tested.   So far they have managed to stay united because they share a common goal.  But with a diminished Chavez, some in the opposition might be tempted to pursue their own particular ambitions and agendas.   The risk of infighting and splits could well increase.

It is not surprising that many of Chavez’s hard-core supporters still have a hard time accepting that their leader is seriously ill and may not be around forever.   He has tried to project the image of president-for-life, and they had believed in his immortality.

The political uncertainty and doubts about Chavez’s future have also unsettled those within Venezuela and outside who have benefited economically from his rule.  The Cubans, for example, know that Chavez’s illness and prolonged absence will weaken him politically.   There is no guarantee that any other Venezuelan president would continue to supply Cuba – a country in dire economic straits – with 100,000 barrels of oil each day.

Although Chavez’s June 28 announcement from Havana that he had cancer can be a regarded as a critical turning point in Venezuelan politics, the news about his health will likely only hasten the political decline – at home and in the region — that had already been underway.

True, Chavez is more vulnerable than he has ever been as president.  But that is more the result of his highly personalistic rule and failure to resolve Venezuela’s problems than of his serious illness.