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The presidential debates are over. The candidates are now concentrating almost all their energy on eight closely contested states where the national election’s outcome will probably be decided. These states are being overrun by campaign workers and volunteers, and truly overwhelmed by saturation advertising. The election may well be determined by which campaign is more successful in assuring that its lukewarm supporters go to the polls. Organization and money, more than programs or personalities, may count most.
The final debate, focused on foreign policy, underlined two important points about this year’s election.
First, Governor Romney continued his strategy of narrowing the differences between himself and President Obama on issue after issue: Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Israel, China, and nation-building. Romney expressed agreement with the Obama administration’s policy on these and other specific points, while repeating his broadly resonant critique: that the world is becoming more dangerous and chaotic. Just as he has done with domestic policy—medical insurance, tax and budget policy, education and energy—Romney has belatedly embraced positions very close to those of Obama but reframed his central appeal: Are voters satisfied, or would they prefer to do better? Whether this tack will succeed remains to be seen, but it clearly has improved Romney’s prospects. Tea Party and neoconservative positions have lost ground, at least for now.
The second point to emerge clearly is how the US electoral system and modern technologies combine to make possible an increasingly sharp focus on key voting groups. Israel was mentioned 34 times in the final debate (Brazil not once) because if Romney could increase the Republican share of Jewish voters from 15% to 30%, that might assure his victory in Florida and Ohio, two crucial swing states. Acrimonious debate about who favored what approach to the crisis of the US auto industry four years ago assumed central importance because of the salience of that industry in parts of Ohio and Michigan. How to define rape, and to deal with pregnancies resulting from rape, have become central topics of discussion because some of Romney’s fellow Republican candidates in state level elections take positions that are vehemently rejected by most Americans, especially in the country’s largest demographic category: women.
Approximately 2 billion dollars has been spent on this year’s campaign, shattering previous records. But little progress has been made on clarifying how the United States can regain its footing and its dynamism, or on developing new approaches to managing thorny problems. Neither President Obama nor Governor Romney has projected an engaging positive vision for the country’s future, nor has either been candid about the challenges the United States must face. Their reliance on caricaturing each other and shopping for votes on wedge issues may or may not be good politics, but it is certainly not wise leadership.
