Ambassador Tom Shannon, Co-Chair of the Inter-American Dialogue, spoke with the Latin News Podcast about what the incoming Trump Administration’s foreign policy priorities in Latin America could be.
COMMENTS FROM SHANNON:
“Every Republican administration […] comes in and peoples the key positions with a bow towards south Florida, with a clear recognition of the importance of Florida on the electoral map and within the party. We can assume [there will be] people in key positions who will connect the foreign affairs view of South America with the greater Caribbean— stretching across Colombia, Venezuela, Central America, and Mexico, and then the Caribbean itself.”
“Senator Rubio’s challenge is trying to convince the President that as important as the migration, drugs, and China agenda is, there is a larger agenda. […] The United States has a remarkable strategic reserve in the Western Hemisphere. While the United States faces really big security challenges elsewhere in the world, it has within its own hemisphere a region that has enormous natural resources […] is largely democratic and largely committed to market economics and understands trade as the driver of growth. You would think that given what we face elsewhere, we would be doing all we could to protect this region and our relationship with it.”
“[Cuba’s regime] is not going anywhere because of us. When it does go, it will be because of the Cuban people. I think we need to keep in mind […] is that we have shown, clearly, that external sanctions will not drive fundamental political change. It has to come from inside. Inside does not mean an external diaspora. It means working with political forces internally.”
“President Trump knows that the maximum pressure campaign [on Venezuela] that his advisors put his administration on failed. […] It would be ironic if not foolhardy to go ahead and do that same thing all over again. What’s going to change? This is a moment in which what the President is going to try to do is what he did at the very beginning of the Trump administration, which is build a new diplomatic structure. In those days it was the Lima Accords. […] It’s my hope that the Trump administration will go back to something similar, but then fortify it. One way to send a clear message […] is to do a security alliance with Guyana, where the United States ensures the territorial integrity of Guyana.”
“[Trump] does not want to be a war president. He wants to be a peace president. He wants to be a president who is defined nationally as a prosperity president. He had any number of opportunities to go to war with Iran, and he avoided them all. He’s not averse to using American force […], but [war] is not his purpose.”
“Lula is the most experienced politician in Latin America. […] I’m quite confident that the Brazilians will drive a way forward. Brazil has always been an interest-driven country, even when it pretends to be ideological—it isn’t. It is about protecting its fundamental commercial interests. [Brazil] is the second largest economy and the second largest democracy in the Western Hemisphere. It needs to be respected and engaged. […] Brazil and the United States right now mimic each other because our democracies are similar, and we are both struggling with larger issues: [rapid and profound economic and social change].”
“[Bukele’s approach] will be attractive to President Trump, and it is already attractive to members of his family and influencers like Tucker Carlson and others. The big test will be the migration test. What Trump will look for are leaders in Central America who can stop the flow of people [to the United States]. With 10s of thousands of gang members held in prison in Central America, what President Trump doesn’t want are any of those gang members heading north.”
