In an interview with O Globo, Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Program, discussed the broader implications of the Trump administration’s tariff strategy, arguing that tariffs are increasingly being treated by companies not as temporary trade measures, but as a structural feature of the global business environment.
Santos noted that, although the new tariffs will have significant consequences for some Brazilian companies and sectors, Brazil is not excessively dependent on the U.S. market and has the capacity to diversify its commercial partnerships over time. In her assessment, the more lasting impact may fall on the United States itself, as businesses adjust supply chains, pricing strategies, and investment decisions in response to a less predictable U.S. trade policy.
She further argued that the broader geopolitical consequence extends beyond Brazil. As confidence in the United States as a stable and reliable economic partner declines, other countries—including China—may benefit, even without becoming more trusted themselves.
COMMENTS FROM SANTOS:
“Section 301 is not used solely to impose tariffs on specific products. It also serves as a tool to create leverage in negotiations. It’s important to understand why the U.S. Trade Representative identified Pix as an unfair trade practice. The objective is to bring Brazil to the negotiating table in pursuit of regulatory concessions in the payments sector.”
“The era of sweeping tariffs is here to stay, and the private sector will increasingly begin pricing in U.S. tariff risk. There is still a belief that these measures are merely political, but they are not.”
“Companies will increasingly begin evaluating diversification strategies, exploring new markets, and, in some cases, even considering whether to scale back or exit the U.S. market. There is also the issue of trust. Much of the influence the United States has exercised globally has been rooted in its reputation for stability—and that has begun to erode.”
“China occupies a unique position in this broader context because it has the scale to project economic and geopolitical power in a way that no other country can. We are talking about two global powers. As countries lose confidence in the United States, that shift could further strengthen China’s position.”
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