This post is also available in: Português Español
For all the talk about continuity between the administrations of Alvaro Uribe and Juan Manuel Santos, what is most striking so far are the differences between Colombia’s president and president elect. These differences — if not in policy, at least in style and tone — will benefit Santos as he pursues his country’s agenda in Washington.
Uribe will be remembered as a successful president who produced significant results and had a unique sense of the national mood. But Uribe has often been a polarizing figure, both within Colombia and the region. For him, strengthening Colombia’s democratic institutions over the long term has been less important than responding to and satisfying immediate citizen demands, especially in the security area.
Although Santos has committed to follow Uribe’s security and economic policies, he is already showing a different temperament and political instincts. Santos’s repeated calls for “national unity,” penchant for dialogue, and concern for preserving political parties and respecting the separation of powers, contrast sharply with Uribe’s preference for bypassing parties, defying the courts when he disagrees with them, and appealing directly to “the people.” In these respects Santos is creating some distance from the more combative current president.
It is of course too soon to know whether Santos will be able to sustain such an approach when faced with increasing domestic pressures and challenges. But his more conciliatory politics and measured tone will be more conducive to tackling a wide-ranging agenda that goes beyond security and will be welcomed by Colombia’s neighbors and Washington. His selection of Maria Angela Holguin, a consummate professional and pragmatist, as foreign minister, is an encouraging sign.
The goodwill gestures extended by Ecuador’s president Rafael Correa and even Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez offer some grounds for optimism, but also caution. It is unclear whether they will lead to better relations with Colombia’s often unfriendly neighbors. Santos was commendably prudent throughout the campaign and has continued to make clear he wants to smooth things over with Correa and Chavez. Yet despite the auspicious start, political agendas and underlying mistrust do not disappear from one day to the next and serious tensions could easily surface again.
In his dealings with Washington, Santos will have to respond to lingering concerns among some Democratic lawmakers about the scandals associated with the Uribe administration. He will argue that he tried to correct the abuses of the “false positives” scandal and had no responsibility for the DAS’s wiretapping of political opponents. Santos is more sensitive to international public opinion than Uribe, and is expected to be skillful in addressing concerns in Washington, a city he knows very well.
Santos will probably not continue to count on Washington for approval of the pending free trade agreement (signed four years ago) and extended security and development assistance. He is likely to seek to build stronger economic and political alliances, with Peru, Chile, Mexico, Brazil, and of course Asia, particularly China. The United States is dealing with significant internal political problems, competing foreign policy priorities and severe budget limitations and therefore is not exactly a reliable ally these days. For Santos, diversifying external ties makes a lot of sense.
Relations between Bogota and Washington have long been marked by progress but also some frustration. It is hard to predict how they will turn out in the Santos period. But signs that the next Colombian president will at least lower the volume of rhetoric and adopt a more conciliatory style should open an opportunity for more productive ties.
