The US election is less than three months away, so it is not surprising that the campaigns have moved into high gear. Polls show that the election will be tight, as both sides focus on the critical “swing” states that will determine the outcome.
Obama’s strategy no longer highlights the “hope and change” theme of 2008. Today that has been replaced by critiques of Romney as a shady, uncaring businessman, with TV ads focusing on the Republican’s offshore bank accounts and undisclosed tax returns.
Obama, in turn, has presented himself as a champion of middle class tax relief. Recent polls suggest that Obama’s strategy may be working, especially in swing states of Ohio, Florid and Pennsylvania, where he has increased his advantage. Independent voters remain skeptical that Romney’s experience will help resolve the campaign’s main issue – job creation.
Romney’s strategy is to remind voters how bad the US economy is and how ineffective Obama’s policies have been. It is time, the campaign emphasizes, for someone else to put the country on a sound economic track. Romney, who voters see as far less likeable than Obama, must prove himself in this area for success in November.
Some analysts (including Republicans) criticized Romney for going to England, Israel and Poland last week – thereby diverting attention from the economy. Such a trip, however, has become a rite of passage for those (like Romney) with virtually no foreign policy experience. Obama went on such a tour in 2008, when he was greeted by throngs of adoring Europeans.
Reviews of Romney’s visit were less favorable. His first stop, London, was particularly infelicitous. His remarks that officials were unprepared for the Olympics caused a strong reaction in a country that Romney included in his itinerary to show that he (unlike Obama) would stand firmly with strong and loyal US allies.
In Israel, Romney’s undiplomatic comment cited culture as a reason for Palestine’s economic troubles. The candidate also compared Israel and Palestine to the United States and Mexico, needlessly offending our southern neighbor and large immigrant population.
But the purpose of Romney’s trip was less to show that he is a great statesman than to win political support for the election among Polish voters (who live in swing states) and, in Israel, to Jewish and particularly evangelical Christians – a significant part of the Republican Party base. The vast majority of Jews will vote for Obama, but in showing such fervent support for Israel, Romney might have helped solidify his position in a divided party.
Romney’s vice presidential pick is expected soon, and the debates are yet to come. But these, and Romney’s performance on the global stage, are less important than the monthly jobs reports from now until October.
