Folha de Sao Paulo
The prolonged US presidential campaign has entered a new phase with the presumptive selection of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee to battle president Barack Obama.
Until this point, the stage has been occupied by the somewhat bewildering spectacle of the various Republican contenders competing for the allegiance of the base of the Republican Party, primarily ensconced in the southern states. These states have voted Republican consistently ever since President Lyndon B. Johnson alienated them by pushing through the civil rights legislation of 1964. The Republicans have achieved a strong hold on the southern states, challenged only—and even then not usually with success—when very large African American populations are mobilized. The Democrats, meanwhile, have achieved control over northeast and Pacific coast states, especially New England and California.
The dominant attitudes of voters in the South are remarkably different from those in New England and California on a variety of dimensions: religious versus secular orientation; attitudes toward science, including climate change and stem cell research; levels of and respect for higher education; opinions on family values, family structures and sexual mores; and attitudes about the role of the state.
Mitt Romney’s dilemma is that he has been forced by the primary process toward the positions of the Republican base, even though these attitudes are not only anathema on the west coast and in New England, but are also losing support in the battleground regions, the Midwest and the mountain states, where the national election will probably be decided. Mr. Romney must now pivot toward positions on social issues that are more congenial to the majority of voters of the United States outside the south, and he is beginning to do so. But the more he tacks toward the moderate center, the more he reinforces his unfortunate image as an aloof politician without core principles or firm beliefs. That in turn makes him a much easier opponent for President Obama, who commands broad respect for his personal qualities.
The US election is probably Mr. Obama’s to lose at this point. He would be vulnerable if the economy were to suffer further reverses, or if unexpected disasters or major scandals occur. But otherwise he has a strong chance to be reelected. Mr. Romney’s successful run for the Republican nomination has weakened him as a presidential candidate who can appeal to independents and moderates.
Abraham F. Lowenthal is Professor Emeritus at the University of Southern California and a Visiting Fellow at the David Rockefeller Center, Harvard University.He was the founding director and remains a member of the Inter-American Dialogue.
