This post is also available in:
On July 21, 2026, Manuel Orozco, director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Program, spoke with CNN about the cancellation of Nicaragua’s upcoming elections by co-president Daniel Ortega.
COMMENTS FROM OROZCO:
“One interpretation is that the political inertia in the Murillo and Ortega dictatorship will generate internal conflict, an economic slowdown, a possible social protest where [the U.S.] can leverage its pressure. But not the other way around. If it intervenes at this moment, it is not known what the effect on a political transition would be.”
“A mistaken reading gives the impression that Nicaragua comes after (Venezuela and Cuba), that the only US policy is direct intervention. There is no calculation of what that means. No one thinks about what it would mean for the US to remove these people from power when there is no opposition, the citizens do not know who the leaders in exile are, and there is economic stability. It is speculation about something that is not certain.”
“Sanctions have to do with cornering the regime. It is likely that [the U.S.] will not miss the opportunity for Nicaragua to enter a democratic transformation.”
“[Co-president Murillo’s] political capital with the army is quite functional, transactional in nature. They are allowed to manage resources, but if pressure arises, if the cost-benefit changes, support will begin to wane. There is a balance of power in her favor internally, but it is not solid enough to guarantee that she will make it to 2027.”
[…]
