The meeting next month at the White House between Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and U.S. President Donald Trump will highlight two “democracies under stress” amid geopolitical tensions, Bruna Santos, director of the Inter-American Dialogue’s Brazil Program, told the Advisor in a recent interview.
Trump and Lula last met face-to-face in Malaysia on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit last October. Since then, Trump’s administration has ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and stepped up its efforts to cut off Cuba’s oil supply, actions that Lula has publicly condemned.
While Venezuela and Cuba are likely to be at the top of the agenda for Lula’s meeting with Trump—as are U.S. tariffs on Brazil—Lula will travel to Washington in early March without any firm objective, Santos said.
“I don’t see them leaving with a deal or an agreement signed” on trade, Santos told the Advisor, calling the effects on Brazil’s economy of 50 percent U.S. tariffs on a wide range of products “macroeconomically insignificant.” Trump announced the tariffs last July before unveiling exceptions in November for key commodities such as beef, coffee and orange juice.
U.S. tariffs have harmed some “small and medium-sized manufacturers” in Brazil with production tailored for the U.S. market, Santos told the Advisor. But instead of pushing for further tariff relief, Santos said Lula will primarily try “to demonstrate that we are ready for a very pragmatic relationship” and emulate Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s convivial Oval Office visit on Feb. 3, which came following months of intense vitriol between Petro and Trump.
Trump and Lula will discuss mining policy, Santos said, as Brazil seeks investment to boost its midstream refining capacity for iron, lithium, rare earths and other minerals. The United States signed critical-mineral trade deals earlier this month with 11 countries including Argentina, Paraguay and Peru. “I don’t see Brazil accepting everything that the United States is going to ask in terms of critical minerals, but I think it will be one important topic,” Santos said. “Brazil has leverage because it has reserves,” she added.
Ultimately, Lula’s campaign for a fourth term in office in Brazil’s October elections makes him unlikely to commit to any substantial concessions when he meets with Trump, Santos told the Advisor.
Recent polling has Lula favored in a close contest in Brazil’s general election in October, with the most likely scenario showing Lula winning a runoff vote against Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, Lula’s now-imprisoned political rival. But any external shock could change that calculus, Santos said, and Brazil’s legislative elections could also prove key to the country’s institutional trajectory, with right-wing politicians poised to make gains in the Senate.
“Violence is one of the biggest concerns for Brazilians today … the likelihood of having a right-leaning Senate is getting higher and higher,” Santos said. This “may trigger a constitutional crisis in Brazil, as the impeachment of a supreme court justice in the Senate next year is very likely to happen,” she added.
“There are moments where the Brazilian population goes for redistribution—they want access to public services, they want credit. I think now we are in an era where people are going to go for law and order, because of the perception of violence, the perception of crime,” Santos told the Advisor.
With an emboldened—albeit fragmented—right-wing opposition and an increasingly sum-zero international order, Lula will meet with Trump while walking a tightrope that extends from domestic to global politics on an unprecedented scale, Santos said.
“Brazil thrives in the in-between. It’s not a categorical country—it’s always going to be about combining everything.”
[Editor’s note: The Dialogue’s Brazil Program recently launched a new polling and insights initiative, Ground Truth: Elections 2026, a year-long featured project focused on the 2026 electoral cycles in Brazil and the United States. Readers can contact Giulia Branco Spiess at gbrancospiess@thedialogue.org to learn more.]
